All In with Chris Hayes, Transcript 11/03/15

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN -- DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Marco, Marco, Marco. HAYES: Donald Trump shifts his focus to the other Florida candidate. TRUMP: Look at Marco`s stance on illegal immigration. It`s really trouble for him. HAYES: As President Obama has a little fun with the Republican field. BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: They can`t handle a bunch of CNBC moderators. HAYES: Then Ben Carson continues his book tour. CARSON: I`m not a politician. So I don`t sit around and strategize. HAYES: We`ll discuss whether he`s actually running for president. Plus, after a huge month for Hillary Clinton, I`ll ask Bernie Sanders how he plans to combat her surging poll numbers. And voters cast ballots across the country today. What the governor`s race in Kentucky tells us about Obamacare and the Democrats in 2016. When ALL IN starts right now. (END VIDEOTAPE) HAYES: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes. A group of Republican presidential candidates is moving ahead with their effort to seize debate negotiations away from the RNC, but after some high profile defections and stinging criticism from their allies that effort seems to have crash the and burn before it got off the ground. Tonight, a joint letter signed by several candidates is expected to go out to the TV networks asking them to commit to specific demands, including a pledge to keep the temperature in the hall below 67 degrees. But yesterday within 24 hours of drafting that letter Sunday night, reps for at least four of the candidates said they decided not to sign it, Donald Trump, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Carly Fiorina. As the candidates` coup was falling apart last night, President Obama was appearing at a DNC fundraiser in New York where he turned Republican outrage over the last debate into a pretty effective punch line. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) OBAMA: Every one of these candidates say, you know, Obama`s weak. Putin`s kicking sand in his face. When I talk to Putin, he`s going to straighten out. Just looking at him, he`s going to be -- (LAUGHTER) OBAMA: And then it turns out they can`t handle a bunch of CNBC moderators at a debate. (APPLAUSE) If you can`t handle those guys, you know, then I don`t think the Chinese and the Russians are going to be too worried about you. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Even Megyn Kelly was ridiculing the GOP candidates last night, mocking the demands in their letter to the networks. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) MEGYN KELLY, FOX NEWS HOST: They want all the candidates to receive similarly substantive questions. No so-called lightning rounds of questioning. Approval of on screen graphics aired during the debate. Oh, yes, that`s going to happen. The network should commit they will not ask hand raising questions, yes or no questions, allow candidate to candidate questions and then maybe like the foot massage or a little -- I mean -- UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No brown M&M`s. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: In an interview today on FOX News, campaign manager for Ben Carson who spearheaded the effort to change the debate insisted their collective bargaining experiment was a success despite the defections. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) BARRY BENNETT, BEN CARSON`S CAMPAIGN MANAGER: I really don`t care you know who`s got the signed letter as long as we interject ourselves in the process, learn earlier what the format is so we can all plan and do a better job. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: In the wake of the debate last week, if there was one area of consensus among the pundit class, it was that Marco Rubio emerged as the best hope for the GOP`s establishment wing. After the debate, his support more than tripled in the New Hampshire poll that was taken after the debate, moving him into third place behind Ben Carson and Donald Trump. But other polls have yet to reflect Rubio`s victory by elite acclamation. A new poll out today from his home state of Florida, Trump is way out ahead topping both Carson and Rubio more than two to one. That hasn`t stopped Donald Trump from setting his sights on Marco Rubio, attacking him over his poor attendance record in the Senate, his personal finances and subject where Rubio is most vulnerable in a Republican primary, his stance on immigration. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) TRUMP: I think that really Marco is overrated. Marco doesn`t show up to the United States Senate. Marco is a sitting senator and he doesn`t show up for the people of Florida. And his personal finances, all you have to do is look at his credit card. I`m in Florida all the time. And for years, I`ve been hearing that his credit cards are a disaster. He certainly lives above his means. There`s no question about that. You look at Marco Rubio, very, very weak on illegal immigration. Look at Marco`s stance on illegal immigration. It`s really trouble for him. I don`t see how he can win. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Joining me now, conservative columnist A.J. Delgado and Marie Hinojosa, host and executive producer of NPR`s "Latino USA". A.J., let me start with you. You`re a Florida resident. You declared in your writing, you`re supporting Donald Trump. This strikes me, the immigration issue, the fact that Rubio was one of the gang of eight that co-wrote the Senate`s comprehensive immigration reform bill before he abandoned it, it strikes me as his single biggest policy vulnerability in a Republican primary. A.J. DELGADO, CONSERVATIVE COLUMNIST: It absolutely is. I mean, I think the voters have shown that immigration is really going to be the critical issue in this election. And that`s why we`re seeing Rubio is barely into double digits. You have Trump, as you noted earlier, leading him at 37 percent to 16 percent in Rubio`s own state. And when immigration has become such a critical issue, it`s why Donald Trump rose the way he did because he said what we wanted to hear on immigration. When you have it as the key issue, how can you then have the guy who spearheaded, who was the front man for the gang of eight as a Republican nominee? It`s just highly unlikely to happen. And the poll numbers are showing that. HAYES: Yes, Maria, I want to play you what Marco Rubio said just a few moments ago on FOX about comprehensive immigration reform and the fact that he essentially rescinded support for the bill he wrote. Take a listen. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, a lot has changed since 2013, primarily a migratory crisis on the southern border, unlawful executive order that legalized 5 million adults in this country. The result is, the only way to move forward on immigration reform now begins by proving to the American people we`re making significant serious progress on limiting illegal immigration. And until you do that, you`re not going to be able to do anything else on immigration. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Here`s the problem for him. Whatever your views on immigration, that clearly doesn`t scan, right? The idea that he made -- he sort of was informed by substantive developments to rescind his support, like is anyone buying that? MARIA HINOJOSA, NPR`S "LATINO USA": I`m kind of stuck at the part where he`s at what happened to the Central American refugees over the summer determining and changing everything. And I`m like, really? First of all, we have to remember that children have been coming to this country from Central America, from the rest of Latin America for years. This is nothing new. HAYES: Right. That`s -- yes, that`s the point, right? It scans so obviously disingenuously, how can people think you`re serious? HINOJOSA: That`s what`s that everybody`s wondering. If those numbers of Rubio`s interests really are showing across the country, then what`s going to happen in terms of Latino voters looking at his very specific policy decision? Not only on immigration but something interesting we found because Latino USA is doing a whole hour about Latino voters this week. And we found that Latino women are turning out in higher numbers than Latino men. One of the issues that`s driving them is productive rights. So, you put that together and you`re going to have a real situation there. HAYES: Well, this is the thing, right? I mean, obviously, Latino voters are not single issues, right, on immigration. And in fact, there`s long been the idea if we can get over the immigration issue, we can win them on GOP side. On the flipside of that, A.J., there are a lot of single issue immigration voters in the Republican primary. That is something that I think a lot of folks continue to not get their head around. Like these people who care about immigration first who want the wall, who like Donald Trump on this, they`re serious. They are going to vote on this issue. DELGADO: And many of them are Latinos like me. That`s the big myth is people assume if you`re Latino, you`re in favor of immigration reform, you`re against the border. You`re against border security. It`s not true. A Gallup poll showed a couple of months ago, that two out of three Latinos want less immigration. You also sees in Florida, Trump is beating by more than twice the support both Rubio and Jeb who are both pro-immigration reform with Latino voters. So, the myth has been completely debunked that Latinos here are somehow all pro-immigration reform, and that`s their top issue. It`s simply not true. We`re like every other American. Jobs, the economy, education, health care are. HAYES: Just a quick interjection here. The polling on comprehensive immigration reform does show wide margins of Latinos supporting, reliably. DELGADO: Among Republicans though? HAYES: No, no, of Latinos generally, right? As a voting bloc, Latinos widely support in poll after poll a pathway to citizenship. That is a polling fact about Latino voters in the country. That said, millions of people -- DELGADO: No, no, I dispute that. Two out of three in the Gallup poll, this wasn`t just Republicans want less immigration. HAYES: But that`s a different thing. Wanting less immigration is a different thing than actually supporting reform. HINOJOSA: So, there`s other information. You know, one out of every four Latinos knows someone who has been detained or deported. One out of every three Latinos worry someone they know could be detained or deported. So, those are very real numbers. This is a heart issue. There may be, yes, a concern like, well, maybe we should control immigration. HAYES: Or have less or have border security. HINOJOSA: People would say if we could stand in line to get the proper paperwork, we would do that. There is no line which is the other thing that no one understands. There`s no line to stand in. HAYES: A.J., the point to me here also seems that Rubio right now and this is true I think in both directions, he`s caught in no-man`s land. I mean, if you`re someone who wants border security who is suspicious that the Republican Party as soon as they get in are going to sell you out on immigration reform, you can`t trust Marco Rubio. If you`re someone who wants a pathway to citizenship and you want comprehensive immigration reform, the guy`s abandoned his own bill. You can`t trust him either way. DELGADO: And he`s lying about it. Last week on the debate stage, he stood up and said immigration should be merit based and everybody uploaded. You go back and look at his record, and the gang of eight bill had less than 10 percent merit based immigration. So, there is -- the Marco Rubio that goes out on campaign and says what we want to hear and then you actually do your homework, it takes 30 seconds to Google it, wait, he`s saying something completely different. So, he`s in his own no-man`s land. HINOJOSA: If Marco Rubio, let`s say, really wanted to go into this issue and say, OK, I actually am for a pathway to citizenship, is the Republican Party going to support him in doing that? HAYES: No, he`s not had here`s his only play I think politically is to lie in the primary and then if he gets the nomination to just have a sort of about face road to Damascus moment where he says, the bill that I wrote, the one that I abandoned, I`m back for that now. Honestly. You know what, that`s what you will see. DELGADO: Which he`s done. He`s flipped flopped so much. HINOJOSA: There is an interesting opening with Rubio. I mean, I`m hearing this as I`m kind of out there doing the reporting. There is a sense that wow, he looked good. HAYES: Right. Yes. HINOJOSA: Interesting. You know, will he be able to reach with the Mexican-American community has a very different experience on immigration than he does? We shall see. So, it`s too early to tell. HAYES: A.J. Delgado, Maria Hinojosa, thank you both. That was great. DELGADO: Thank you. HAYES: I`m joined now by Jim Nicholson who served as an ambassador and cabinet secretary under George W. Bush, was chairman of the Republican National Committee from `97 to 2001. Mr. Nicholson, I wanted to get your thoughts as someone who run the DNC on what the heck is happening over there with this -- with the management of this year`s race? How unprecedented is what we`re seeing? JIM NICHOLSON, FORMER RNC CHAIR: It`s not so unprecedented. It`s pretty normal especially when you have a covey of talented candidates like we do. They all have strong egos, strong desires, strong staffs. And plus, you know, they ran into a buzz saw in the CNBC debate. So what`s important is to realize what the responsibility of the RNC is. And the RNC is sort of the transcendent, the overarching entity that arranges for the debates tries to get some framework around them so that the candidates whoever shows up to be a candidate in the party, and they don`t have any control over that, will have a fair opportunity in these debates to present themselves to the American people. That`s mission number one of the RNC. And then mission number two is to carry the water for the candidates if the candidates are all in agreement. But if they`re not in agreement, the RNC can`t advocate for them because they have to be neutral. HAYES: Right. NICHOLSON: And, you know, what`s good for the goose may not be good for the gander in some of these debates. Some of them don`t mind a three- hour debate. Some of them -- HAYES: That`s part what have we`re seeing the fissures in the wake of this, what appears to be a failed experiment at collective bargaining with the networks. You were -- you were at the RNC in the 2000 election. What struck me as so different was everyone remembers the way that essentially the Bush donor network and the Bush folks, George W. Bush speaking this time in 2000 were able to kind of come in and if not clear the field, obviously had he competition, John McCain gave him a run for his money, but there was a sense in which the power of that establishment and than network in 2000 was much more powerful than the version of that for Jeb Bush in 2015. Does that seem like the case to you? NICHOLSON: It does. There`s no question. And one of the other things that Jeb has to put up with is the dissipation factor. There are many more really serious talented candidates this time than there were in 2000. You know, one of the candidates we had who didn`t do very well was Pat Buchanan. So, what did he do? He didn`t just leave the debates. He left the party. That`s another challenge for the party chairman is to keep everybody in the boat because it`s going to be very important that we don`t have one of these candidates do a third party candidacy in what will obviously be a very close election. HAYES: Do you think that`s a possibility? NICHOLSON: No, I don`t have any reason to think that they will. In fact, I think he has them all committed to supporting the winner of the primary process, including Don Trump who signed a piece of paper saying that he would, and I take him at his word that he will do that if he doesn`t win the nomination himself. HAYES: I can`t imagine Donald Trump reneging on a deal. Jim Nicholson, great pleasure. Thank you very much. Coming up, Bernie Sanders joins me to talk about his strategy to catch Hillary in the polls and he weighs in a shocking study. We`ll tell you all about next. Plus, is there an impostor in candidates` clothing. A look at some pretty compelling arguments that one of the Republican candidates isn`t actually running for president. And later, arguably the biggest race in the country today. How a Kentucky race would be a referendum on the state of Obamacare. Those stories and more, ahead. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: Big breaking news out of the state of Kentucky on this election night. Matt Bevin, the Kentucky businessman, Republican nominee for governor has won. "A.P." is calling it in his race against Jack Conway, statewide elected officer who loses the Democrat. It was a closely, closely watched race and a lot of people thought it would turn possibly on Obamacare. The outgoing Democratic governor had expanded Medicaid in the state. He had set up a very successful and effective state exchange. That`s something we`re going to talk about later in the show. Now for something incredible and terrifying that is happening to a huge group of people in this country. And until yesterday, almost nobody studying social trends knew about it. A pair of married Princeton economists Angus Deaton and Anne Case found something truly shocking. The death rate for middle aged white Americans people between 45 and 54 years old has been rising. In other words, middle aged white Americans are dying at a higher rate than they used to. This chart shows deaths per 100,000, people from 1999 to the 2013 among people from ages 45 to 54. In every rich country, France, Germany, U.K., the death rate for white people in this age group has been falling. See that red line? That`s the U.S. where the reverse is happening. The mortality rate is up. And this trend is specific to white folks in this country. That blue line is the death rate for middle aged American Hispanics for instance. Their mortality rate is dropping along with everyone else`s. And, in fact, middle aged white Americans are the only group dying at a higher rate than they used to. In every other age group, every other racial and ethnic group, death rates have been falling. So, what is causing this? According to them, an uptick in suicide, drug and alcohol poisoning and chronic liver of diseases and cirrhosis -- in other words, drinking yourself to death. This chart shows what`s happening. More deaths from chronic liver diseases, more suicides and perhaps most shocking, a huge uptick in drug and alcohol poisonings, overdoses. The increase in mortalities is being driven not by affluent white Americans but by less educated white Americans who are going through extremely hard times economically. From 1999 to the 2013, the inflation adjusted income per households headed by a high school graduate fell by 19 percent, a fifth of their income just disappeared. What we are seeing in this data, in those charts, is an absolutely crisis. We`ve already seen it affecting the presidential race as people pack town halls to discuss heroin addiction in New Hampshire and candidates start laying out policies and tend to deal with the issue. When we come back, I`ll ask Bernie Sanders, Democratic candidate for president what we can do to address it. That`s next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: New poll today out of New Hampshire with good news for Hillary Clinton. Clinton now leads Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire by three points, 48-45 percent in September, when Joe Biden and Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee were included in the polls. Sanders had a seven-point edge over Clinton, 43-36 percent. Clinton`s also increased her lead over Sanders nationally. According to new NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll, Clinton held a 25-point lead over Sanders in October. A lead she has increased by six points. She now leads 62-31fationwide with Martin O`Malley taking 3 percent. I sat down with Sanders this afternoon and I started by asking him how at the thinks about altering his campaign strategy based on the poll. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, one of the major alterations is as you know, Secretary Clinton has put thing like $6 million, $7 million into campaign ads, TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire. We haven`t spent a nickel. Well, today, there are changes. And we have an ad up and we will continue to do TV and radio. I think that will have a significant impact because a lot of people especially in Iowa who don`t know who I am or what I stand for. But second of all, we`re feeling very good, Chris. You know, when we started this campaign, as you know, I was considered to be a fringe candidate. I was at 3 percent, 5 percent. We have gained a lot of ground in the last six months. I think we`re going to continue to gain ground by talking about the real issues that impact the American middle class income and wealth inequality, the collapse of the American working class, climate change and the fact that we have more people in jail than any other country on earth. HAYES: Let me ask you this. There`s this forum that my colleague Rachel Maddow will be moderating this Friday. And it`s sort of an interesting format. It occurs to me, it`s sort of an opportunity to show at length parts of yourself you don`t normally speak about things you don`t have an opportunity. Are there issues -- are there parts of the Bernie Sanders agenda you feel that Democratic primary voters don`t know enough about? SANDERS: Well, I think, in essence what I believe, Chris, and what many people don`t know is that given the nature of class politics in America, given the fact that we have a corrupt campaign finance system, that we have an economy that is rigged, the major point that I am making is that establishment politicians cannot make the kinds of changes that we need in these very, very difficult times. You can`t run a super PAC and get money from Wall Street and say, oh, yes, I`m going to take on Wall Street. What we need now is a political movement of millions of people to transform American society, the same old same old just won`t do it. And that is the point that has to, I think, be made clear from our campaign`s perspective. HAYES: You just talked about money and politics and the unprecedented amount of money, the sort of wealth and income inequality, and also, a kind of Democratic inequality. There was an interview by my colleagues this morning with the Koch brothers. I want to play you this clip, this exchange about corporate welfare and get your reaction. Take a listen. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JOE SCARBOROUGH, MSNBC ANCHOR: What would you say to your critics who would say you`re just like any other crony capitalist and you give money and expect something in return? Like Donald Trump said, I give people money and they`ll do what I want them to do. CHARLES KOCH, CEO, KOCH INDUSTRIES: I expect something in return. I would love to have the government stop this corporate welfare. That`s what I want. I want the government to let companies or require that companies only profit by helping make other people`s lives better. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: That`s Charles Koch expressing his commitment to ending corporate welfare. Do you buy that, Senator? SANDERS: And making life for people better, no doubt. Look, you know, in 1980, Chris -- and we don`t talk about this enough -- David Koch ran for vice president of the United States on the libertarian party ticket. What his agenda was, it was not to cut Social Security or Medicare, but to end Social Security, end Medicare, end Medicaid, end the EPA, end the concept of the Environmental Protection Agency. Basically, he wanted to eliminate virtually every program developed since FDR designed to help working people and the middle class. That is their agenda. And to tell you the truth, you know, 30 years have come and gone, I don`t think that agenda has changed at all. What these guys are doing is spending unbelievable sums of money, $900 million of this campaign cycle to support right wing candidates who are going to war big-time against working families and the middle class. No, I do not think the Koch brothers want to make life better for ordinary people. HAYES: There was this study that has been getting a lot of attention, was published yesterday. We just talked about it just a few moments ago. I talked about it in which the mortality rates for white people in this country, 45 to 55, are going up when the mortality rates for everyone is going down, everyone in the developed world is going down. SANDERS: Right. HAYES: The main drivers of that are folks with just a high school education and things like overdoses from drug addiction, suicide, cirrhosis from alcohol abuse. I mean, there -- what do you think about what this data shows about this crisis, real crisis? SANDERS: Chris, first of all thank you very much for discussing it on your program. When I talk about the collapse of the American working class, that`s what I`m talking about. You know, a couple of years ago, there was a study that came out that women in certain counties in Kentucky and West Virginia I believe were seeing a decline in their life expectancy compared to their mother`s. What this is about is totally shocking. And what it tells you is that there are millions of people in this country, working class people, whose standard of living is going down. They are experiencing very high levels of unemployment. They are in despair. They don`t see anything in front of them in terms of the future that`s going to work for them. And this opiate addiction leading to heroin has been a disaster. Alcohol, of course, is a disaster. Suicide rates are soaring. This is a crisis. And it speaks to what is going on for millions of families in this country, an issue that we have got to address in the wealthiest country in the history of the world. HAYES: Here`s my question for you, Senator, because if you look at the demographics of that group as a voting bloc, white folks particularly with say just a high school education, they vote overwhelmingly Republican. They`ve been moving and not just voting Republican but have getting more Republican over time. And there`s a certain strain of political analysis that those votes, the same population that is undergoing this crisis are lost to the Democratic Party. Can you get those votes? SANDERS: Oh, absolutely we can. Look, I mean, the reason that I`m running for president is that I think we need in a candidate and we need a movement that speaks precisely not only to the young people and to the old people, but to working class people who are in despair, who are working longer hours for low pages, who have nothing saved for retirement. What the Republicans have successfully said, oh, the reason you`re in trouble is because of gay marriage. The reason that you are in trouble is blacks are trying to take your job. That`s been the line for years. Our job is to mobilize those people who are hurting so badly to finally, finally stand up to the Koch brothers and to the big money interests who have been at war against the working class for decades. These guys have seen their jobs go to China. The minimum wage that many of them are working for is much too low. They can`t afford to send their kids to college to get decent child care for their little once. We have got to reach out to them, bring them into the political movement and work with them to stand up to the big money interests who have been committing, you know, been at war with them for so many decades. HAYES: All right. Senator Bernie Sanders, always a pleasure. Thank you, sir. SANDERS: Thank you, Chris. (END VIDEOTAPE) HAYES: As I mentioned in that interview with Senator Sanders he will be part of the Democratic Forum hosted by the one and only Rachel Maddow in South Carolina, and that is happening this Friday only on MSNBC. You don`t want to miss that. Still to come, is Ben Carson actually running for president? We will look at that ahead. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: Today, the White House stood by the president`s commitment to making a decision on the Keystone XL pipeline before he leaves office even after a big development in the year`s long fight over that hugely controversial $8 billion project to build a massive pipeline to carry 800,000 barrels of crude oil per day from the Alberta oil sands to the Texas Gulf Coast full of carbon intensive oil. TransCanada, the company behind the project, yesterday suspended its request for a permit to build the Keystone pipeline asking the State Department, coming to them, saying suspend your evaluation of the pipeline proposal until after the state of Nebraska can complete its own review of the project which could take seven to 12 months. So, here`s the question. Why would TransCanada make that request after pushing so hard for so long to get the pipeline built? Well, environmentalists and many industry observers believe it is a play by the company because it anticipates getting a no from the Obama administration and is thus trying to hit pause and hope the next administration is more willing to let the pipeline be built. Quote, "TransCanada is losing and they`re trying to preserve their options to be able to build the pipeline some day if they can get a climate denier in the White House, Tiernan Sidenfield (ph), the League of Conservation Voters told The New York Times. The White House says the President Obama fully intends to make a decision on the pipeline before he leaves office. Speaking to reporters today, White House press secretary Josh Earnest suggested it was pretty late in the game for TransCanada to expect the administration to hit the pause button. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: This is a process that has taken an extensive amount of time to complete. I don`t have an update for you in terms of where the State Department currently is in the process. But given how long it`s taken, it`s -- it seems unusual to employee to suggest that somehow it should be paused yet again. (END VIDEO CLIP) (COMMERCIAL BREAK) (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Would you rather sell books or be president? BEN CARSON, 2016 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would much rather be president, I think, just because -- not because I have a great desire just to have the position but because I have a great desire to save this country for the next generation. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: It`s a fair question to ask a person who is out selling books while running for president. But New York Magazine`s Jonathan Chait chose to ask this question is Ben Carson running for president? As Chait points out it`s kind of hard to tell in certain ways because "the mere fact that Carson calls himself a presidential candidate does not prove he`s actually running for president rather than taking advantage of the opportunity to build his brand." About three weeks ago, it was reported that Carson was putting his campaign on hold to promote his book "A More Perfect Union." His deputy communications director characterized it this way, "it is true that Dr. Carson has been appearing in numerous interviews about his new book, but even during these interviews he`s talking about the campaign and his vision for America. Meanwhile, Carson`s entire campaign seems to be essentially oriented around spending money to raise money. Wall Street Journal reported last month, Republican Ben Carson`s campaign spent more than two-thirds of what it raised in the third quarter with the bulk of its money spent on fund- raising and digital marketing. Conservative columnist Eric Erickson notes, "Carson`s actual expenditure list reads like a wealthy Republican getting played by consultants." And yet in the weeks since Carson has been spending a considerable time out promoting his book, he surged into the lead of the Republican race, so he`s doing something right. Joining me now Emily Cadei. She`s political correspondent for Newsweek. She`s got a cover story on Ben Carson which is now online called "America Heal Thyself: The World Through Ben Carson`s Surgical Magnifying Glass." Emily, what do you think of this question, particularly as he goes on this book tour. And we were looking -- I mean, he`s moving a lot of product it`s fair to say. He`s selling a lot of books. He`s got a very big following. And they are spending a lot of money to raise money. What do you make of this of what this phenomenon is? EMILY CADEI, NEWSWEEK: Well, I think there`s a lot of candidates out there who are both campaigning and sort of shilling, selling books, selling themselves. It`s a little bit hard these days to distinguish between political campaign and sort of a business operation. HAYES: Marketing opportunity, yeah. CADEI: Yeah, yeah. So I mean, there`s been studies that looked at how presidential candidates past cycles have done afterwards. I mean, Sarah Palin`s a prime example of someone who sort of saw their star launched and made a ton of money out of the presidential campaign. So, there`s a -- I`m sure that he would love to be president, but if he doesn`t become president, there`s some financial upside for him, as well. HAYES: You know, one of the things I liked about your profile is you did something I`ve been wanting reporters to do. I`ve been looking for which is go back and talk to colleagues of his at Johns Hopkins. Because the thing I keep thinking is was he like this in the surgery room? CADEI: right. HAYES: Like was he pronouncing about you know, that the way that prison can make you gay or whatever statements. And there is a certain kind of bewilderment I think that comes through in the interviews with some of his ex-colleagues about the version of Ben Carson they`re seeing now. CADEI: Yeah, I think -- what`s always interested me about Carson is that he was very much this revered figure for a long time before he entered the political fray. He wasn`t controversial even though I think all along, there were some very clear tenants of his belief system that are getting more publicity now and getting people to scratch their heads a little bit. But in terms of his people skills, you know, he -- everyone I spoke to -- I was really surprised, it was pretty consistent were saying that he`s amazing with people across all walks of life. He does not have sort of a biased bone in his body. He just has this wonderful human touch and ability to bring people together. And while I don`t think we`re seeing that in some of these national interviews he`s doing when he`s saying some controversial things, I think it has been effective for him on the campaign trail one-on-one because he`s really doing well with the grassroots. HAYES: Well, and part of -- part of the paradox here is here`s someone who announced I`m going to take -- originally announcement I`m going to suspend my campaign and go sell books which is not a thing you traditionally do when you`re trying to run for president, bright? Here`s someone who says, yeah, you know, I`d like to be president. I sort of got talked into doing it after a lot of people -- and in some ways what seems his manifest disinterest in actually being president of the United States seems to be the thing that people are really in the Republican primary field really like. CADEI: Yeah. Well, he`s not a politician. He`s not desperate for a political promotion or desperate for the power. That`s sort of the interpretation I think that people are taking away from him and his message. And you know, he also is sort of the antithesis of the back slapping really charming charismatic politician. But I wouldn`t underestimate his ability to charm people in that soft spoken understated way. But it`s just different from what we`re used to traditionally on the campaign trail. And people want different right now. HAYES: Well, so having written this profile, having done this reporting, is this a real thing? I mean, is this -- are we going to see this individual in this campaign actually build a campaign organization, stay in this? It`s 90 days until Iowa and be in this race? CADEI: I`m not entirely convinced. I think we have to see how he`s able to translate that popularity on social media and on the campaign trail into some sort of organization because a lot of these races an he we saw with Obama and Clinton in 2008, or even in 2012, it really is about turnout. It`s about organization now. And he`s not going away. I think people have underestimated him up to this point in terms of his appeal, but getting people out to vote is a very different ballgame than just getting likes on Facebook. HAYES: All right, Emily Cadei, thanks a lot. CADEI: Thank you. HAYES: Why a recall effort for a local school board election in Colorado got the attention from the conservative special interest groups with deep pockets. That`s next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: Today, one of the most expensive local school district races in America is taking place in Jefferson County, Colorado where three right wing school board members elected in 2013 face a recall election following an uproar over a change in how teachers get pay raises and talk of reviewing the history curriculum to more forcefully promote patriotism. That proposed curriculum change caused students to stage a walkout last year and teachers a sickout. Now, the two sides for and against the recall were expected to spend more than $1 million on this battle. This is a school board election. Much of the money against the recall to keep those folks in power coming from groups like Americans for Prosperity, the conservative group founded by the Koch Brothers. There`s another big vote today in a race that could be a crystal ball for the 2016 elections. We`ve got a return. AP has called it. We will tell you about that next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: Arguably the biggest race in the country this election day is in Kentucky, a state where Barack Obama lost by wide margins in both presidential elections and a state with two Republican senators but also a state where the Democratic governor, Steve Beshear, implemented the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act and implemented a very successful state version of Obamacare through the Exchange called Connect. Just moments ago the Associated Press called the race in the hotly contested gubernatorial race there declaring Republican businessman Matt Bevin the victor over Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway. Now, here`s why that possibly bigger deal than just a Kentucky gubernatorial race, though, it`s a big deal in that respect. Bevin has been a bit slippery about whether he would take away Medicaid expansion in that state, though, it is widely anticipated it will be in trouble now that he has been elected the winner. Governor Beshear was quite vocal what was at stake quoting the governor "anybody who today talks about dismantling Connect," that`s the state exchange, "and talks about repealing expanded Medicaid they don`t know what they`re talking about. And I think on November 3, the people of Kentucky are going to rise up against this kind of stuff and I said stuff. I was starting to say something else." But as we enter the third round of Obamacare open enrollment in a year that saw the U.S. hit the lowest percentage of uninsured since we started measuring, tonight`s result in ominous. What tonight`s result in Kentucky could mean for the president`s biggest accomplishment next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) AUDREY TAYES HAINES, KENTUCKY HEALTH AND FAMILY SERVICES: We do not believe that health care is a partisan issue. But every time that the opponents to health care can attach the president`s name to it and call it Obamacare, I believe in our governor`s race here in Kentucky they have run against the president as if his name was on the ballot instead of against the Democratic nominee Jack Conway. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: That was Audrey Tayes Haines, she`s secretary of the cabinet for health and family services in Kentucky. When I spoke with her earlier tonight just before the Kentucky election was called for Republican Matt Bevin. Joining me now to talk about the ramifications of that vote, Ryan Grimm, Washington Bureau Chief of the Huffington Post and MSNBC contributor. Also joining me by phone from Frankfurt, Kentucky in NBC News is NBC News senior political reporter Perry Bacon. Perry, my understanding is you`re outside the Conway headquarters. You`re headed to Matt Bevin`s headquarters. At some level, this is a red state, but still in some sense it`s a surprising result. What`s the reaction on the ground there? PERRY BACON, NBC NEWS: The Democrats here are very surprised. There was some -- the people I talked to last night really did think Bevin is a very controversial figure. You remember he went to that cockfighting rally last year in his senate race. So they thought -- the Democrats here thought they could Matt Bevin. He was a pretty flawed candidate. But it looks like Conway lost by more than five points here. So, there`s a lot of disappointment. And a lot of people just very stunned here. There was a thought that Conway, it would be a close race, but he would pull it out. HAYES: Conway is an attorney general. Obviously, he`s been able to get elected statewide. But he has lost a bunch of races. Part of this looks like, Perry, I`m curious what, terrain was this campaign fought on? BACON: It was not fought on like we talked about health care a lot. But one thing Bevin did, and I talked to him about this yesterday, was Bevin has now said that he would not -- during his primary he said he would get rid of the Medicaid expansion. But now he`s moved at saying that he supports what Indiana has done which is they had the Medicaid funding, but they added some fees. They made it sort of a private option instead of additional Medicaid. So, Bevin sort of took that issue off the table. And what he ran on was a lot of traditional conservative issues. He would make it a right to work state. He would expand vouchers. All his commercials were Jack Conway supports Barack Obama, Jack Conway supports Barack Obama. So he ran on that a lot. Also, one thing that was surprising here nationally, he did a lot of work with, he went down to talk to Kim Davis, of course the county clerk who wouldn`t issue licenses to same-sex couples. He went down there a lot. He sort of campaigned on Planned Parenthood, on religious liberty and emphasized those issues kind of cultural conservative issues where most Kentuckians sort of stand with him more than the Democrats. HAYES: All right, Perry Bacon, thanks so much for that dispatch from Kentucky. All right, Ryan Grimm, you know there`s an old -- the old saying, right, all politics is local. What has been increasingly happening in American politics is the reverse is that all politics are national. Every issue gets nationalized. And it increasingly becomes more and more difficult for the party that is, you know, climbing up hill -- whether it`s Republicans in New York or the Democrats in Kentucky to overcome that. RYAN GRIMM, HUFFINGTON POST: That`s right. You know, these elections are kind of like Internet comment sections. You know, they`re just big national fights no matter where they are. And presidential candidates are encountering that when they go to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, people want to talk to them about the national issues that they`re reading about on Breitbart or on the Drudge Report or that they`re seeing on Fox News or this network or anywhere else. Gone are the days where you kind much go to Iowa and talk about ethanol or you run a governor`s race in Kentucky and talk about how you`re delivering health care to the people there. Instead, it`s about you know, how close are you to this evil president who has a year left in his term and if you can tie this Democrat to the broader national Democratic Party, then you can do what you did in Kentucky today. HAYES: And let`s be clear, I was seeing on Twitter, I was tweaked by a staffer for a Republican senator for saying you know GOP in disarray as the lower third in the first part of this is we`re reporting now on this. I mean, the Republican Party at the statewide level, at the local level, state legislatures, has been remarkably effective during the Obama era of nationalizing election after election in what are Red States to carry through and it worked here. GRIMM: Right. They`ve been running against Obama, you know, pretty effectively since 2010. You know, what they`re going to do now that they`re in power in a place like Kentucky will be interesting. Kansas could be one example. Sam Brownback, he took the Tea Party playbook, won as governor, implemented that playbook and destroyed Kansas`s economy even while they had all of this energy money coming through in the midst of an energy boom. You know, he slashed taxes. He destroyed education funding. And the economy has kind of spiraled down while states nearby have done just fine. It`s kind of a perfect experiment where you could actually test this policy. He`s still governor. So you know, apparently tanking the state doesn`t necessarily cost you your job. He was reelected. His approval rating is now close to single digits, but that`s among the voters who recently reelected him. So, whether Matt Bevin can wipe out health care for a couple hundred thousand people remains to be seen. But it`s not even certain that he would pay the kind of political costs that we would expected in the past would come from that. HAYES: Well, that`s the big question. He sort of kind of -- he appeared to take it off the table. No one has yet gone back on Medicaid expansion despite the fact Arkansas elected a Republican governor. They kept that in place. That is the big question, 400,000 people whose health care is at stake. They are front of mind on this evening. Ryan Grimm, thank you so much. All right, that is All In for this even. Tomorrow night, make sure to tune in for my exclusive live interview with Quentin Tarantino of the national boycott he`s now facing after his comments on police brutality. THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END