Campaign Calculus: ‘47 percent’ fallout


As we move closer to November 6, the presidential campaign has become a day-by-day foot race to the finish, with each side trying either to dodge or deal blows to the other.

Here at The Last Word we thought it would be interesting to get a more longitudinal look at the campaign, so we combined snapshots of daily events with Nate Silver’s “Chance of winning” prediction over at the FiveThirtyEight blog. To be sure, Nate uses a complex method to determine his numbers each day; snapshots don’t reflect the subtle state by state, district by district number shifts. But seeing the biggest story of the day beside Nate’s probabilities gives you a sense of the arc of the campaign in a new way.

Nate Silver, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama

Campaign Calculus: '47 percent' fallout