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Republican presidential candidate, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, right, speaks as Republican presidential candidate, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, listens, during the Republican presidential debate on March 10, 2016, in Coral Gables, Fla. (Photo by Wilfredo Lee/AP)

Cruz and Kasich hatch scheme as latest polls bolster Trump

04/25/16 09:20AM

The conventional wisdom has shifted more than once about Donald Trump's chances of locking up the Republican nomination before the party's convention, but as things stand, his odds aren't bad at all.
 
There are five primaries tomorrow, and Trump is well positioned in all of them, including a big lead in Pennsylvania, this week's largest prize. Next week is Indiana's primary, and two new polls show Trump ahead there, too. For good measure, the GOP frontrunner even has a sizable advantage in California, which has more delegates available than any other state.
 
The road ahead for Trump isn't easy, but if these polls are correct, and he wins by sufficient margins, it's hardly unrealistic to believe the New York developer will secure the necessary delegates by the time voting ends in early June. If Ted Cruz and John Kasich are going to prevent that outcome, they're going to have to do something.
 
So, they're doing something. NBC News reported:
The campaigns of Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced an agreement Sunday night to coordinate their efforts to prevent Donald Trump from winning the GOP's presidential nomination before the Republican National Convention.
 
"To ensure that we nominate a Republican who can unify the Republican Party and win in November, our campaign will focus its time and resources in Indiana and in turn clear the path for Gov. Kasich to compete in Oregon and New Mexico," Cruz's campaign manager Jeff Roe said in a statement late Sunday.
 
The Kasich campaign sent its own statement minutes later.
For his part, Trump accused his rivals of "colluding" against him, which seems fair, given that his rivals really are "colluding" against him.
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert arrives at the federal courthouse, June 9, 2015. (Photo by Paul Beaty/AP)

Hastert's allies plead for leniency for former House Speaker

04/25/16 08:40AM

Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert is facing two very different kinds of accusations. One, which led to his arrest, involved the Illinois Republican lying to the FBI about covering up "misconduct" from his tenure as a high school coach many years ago. Hastert has already issued a guilty plea as part of an agreement with federal prosecutors.
 
The second is the "misconduct" itself: Hastert is accused of being an alleged serial child molester. It's the severity of these accusations that's led prosecutors to seek the harshest possible penalty, including jail time. It's also prompted many of the former Speaker's allies to seek leniency.
The wife and sons of Dennis Hastert and former politicians have written letters asking a judge to spare the ex-Speaker of the House prison in his hush-money case, according to court documents made public Friday.
 
Prosecutors are asking that Hastert, 74, be sentenced to six months in prison for structuring withdrawals to avoid bank reporting laws. Hastert's attorneys are asking for probation.
Perhaps no letter is quite as striking as the one sent by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas), who told the judge, "We all have our flaws, but Dennis Hastert has very few."
 
It's almost like an ugly punch line to an inappropriate joke:  Hastert's few "flaws" include being accused of sexually abusing several minors and then orchestrating a scheme to cover up his alleged misdeeds.
 
DeLay added that Hastert "doesn't deserve what he is going through."
 
No, seriously, that's what he said.
Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders arrives to speak on the campus of Penn State University in State College, Penn., April 19, 2016. (Photo by Lucas Jackson/Reuters)

Sanders reflects on Dem race, says poor people 'don't vote'

04/25/16 08:00AM

In recent weeks, as his odds of winning the Democratic nomination have grown longer, Bernie Sanders has offered different explanations of why he's come up short thus far. The senator has pointed several times, for example, to the results from Southern primaries, which has proven problematic for a variety of reasons.
 
Yesterday, however, talking to NBC News' Chuck Todd, Sanders put forward a new take on the Democratic race. Here was the exchange on "Meet the Press":
TODD:  I have quite some interesting numbers here. So 17 of the 25 states with the highest levels of income inequality have held primaries. Sixteen of those 17 states have been won by Hillary Clinton, not by you. Why?
 
SANDERS: Well, because poor people don't vote. I mean, that's just a fact. That's a sad reality of American society. And that's what we have to transform. We have one -- as you know, one of the lowest voter turnouts of any major country on Earth. We have done a good job bringing young people in. I think we have done -- had some success with lower income people. But in America today -- the last election in 2014, 80% percent of poor people did not vote.
It's a provocative thesis, which is half-right. Note, for example, that Sanders' case that low-income Americans vote in much lower numbers is absolutely correct. There's ample evidence that points to a striking relationship between income and voting participation: the more money a voter makes, the more likely it is that he or she will participate in an election.
 
Demos published a fascinating report on this a couple of years ago, scrutinizing the 2010 cycle, and making the same point Sanders stressed yesterday: affluent citizens voted at rates "as high as 35 percentage points [higher] than low-income citizens."
 
There are all kinds of important political and societal consequences associated with this trend, not the least of which is policymakers, eager to keep their jobs, catering to the interests of those most likely to be engaged. If low-income Americans voted in greater numbers, national politics would likely look a lot different.
 
Where Sanders' explanation comes up short, however, is his belief that he'd be the principal beneficiary if these struggling voters showed up in greater numbers.
A Noah's Ark exhibit at the Creation Museum in Petersburg, Ky. An extensive portion of the museum explains Noah's Ark and how the great flood wiped out the majority of dinosaurs and shaped the land today.

This Week in God, 4.23.16

04/23/16 07:33AM

First up from the God Machine this week is a story out of Kentucky that we've been watching for years, about a controversial theme park that's subsidized by taxpayers, but which is nevertheless openly discriminating in its hiring.
 
The Kentucky Associated Press reported, "Want to serve food or operate rides at Kentucky's new Noah's Ark attraction? Then you must first pledge your Christianity."
The theme park will be searching for 300 to 400 workers to fill food service, ticketing and other theme park-related positions at the 510-foot long Ark Encounter before it opens in July and Ken Ham, founder of the ministry Answers in Genesis, says employees will be required to sign a statement saying they're Christian and "profess Christ as their savior."
 
The religious group, which will run the ark's operations, won a federal court ruling in January that clarified that it can make religious-based hires even as it seeks a Kentucky tourism tax incentive worth millions.
Ken Ham said last week that he's "requiring" employees to be Christians, even if their specific jobs have nothing to do with religion.
 
A report from Raw Story added job seekers must submit a "creation belief statement" and "salvation testimony" before being hired, in addition to endorsing the official Answers in Genesis "Statement of Faith," which among other things, dictates that the planet is roughly 6,000 years old.
 
On Twitter, Ken Ham wrote, "Secular media think it's big news that a Christian organization with a specific Christian purpose @ArkEncounter will employ Christians -DUH!"
 
And while that may not seem controversial, this story is a little different. As longtime readers may recall, the Answers in Genesis ministry sought and received taxpayer support for the project, and state officials, in the name of boosting tourism, approved $18 million in tax subsidies to bolster the theme park's finances.
 
The state of Kentucky pulled back, however, after it learned that Ark Encounter intended to discriminate in hiring. If the ministry wants taxpayer money, the state said, it can't discriminate against the same taxpayers supporting the project.
 
Answers in Genesis took the matter to court, arguing that Kentucky was discriminating against the ministry because the group wants to discriminate. Inexplicably, a federal judge appointed by President George W. Bush ruled in the ministry's favor, ordering the state to subsidize employment discrimination.
 
Maybe this will be reversed on appeal? Actually, no -- because new Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) likes the ruling and has no interest in challenging it.
 
And so, the theme park will discriminate against Kentucky residents, even as Kentucky residents help pay for the theme park.
 
Also from the God Machine this week:

Friday's Mini-Report, 4.22.16

04/22/16 05:30PM

Today's edition of quick hits:
 
* An important step: "Secretary of State John Kerry celebrated the signing of the Paris climate agreement on Friday, telling United Nations delegates it should sharpen the world's focus on fighting climate change."
 
* Mass shooting: "Eight people were found slain Friday in a small Ohio town east of Cincinnati -- and seven of them were killed 'execution-style.' The victims were believed 'to possibly be members of the same family' and all appeared to have been shot to death, Attorney General Mike DeWine said in a statement."
 
* He's right: "President Obama joined a chorus of critics calling for the repeal of controversial legislation seen as anti-LGBT on Friday, saying that laws that have been passed in Mississippi and North Carolina 'are wrong.'"
 
* When making a list of the most ridiculous antics of the Republican Congress, the assault on the IRS has to be right up there.
 
* Chicago: "A week after a task force assembled by Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) released a scathing report pillorying his police department, the city is making a series of changes aimed at reforming the force."
 
* A story we've been keeping a close eye on appears to be over: "The Missouri Senate announced Thursday it is suspending contempt proceedings against a Planned Parenthood CEO after reaching an agreement to review some documents a legislative committee investigating the organization subpoenaed last year." (Disclosure: My wife works for Planned Parenthood, but was not involved in this controversy.)
 
* Florida: "The Florida Supreme Court suspended the state's 24-hour waiting period for abortions on Friday until it decides whether to hear a lawsuit claiming the law is unconstitutional."
Virginia residents wait in line in the pre-dawn hours to vote in the Virginia primary at a historic property called the Hunter House at Nottoway Park in Vienna, Va., on March 1, 2016. (Photo by Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA)

Virginia governor makes bold, historic move on voting rights

04/22/16 04:00PM

After several years in which so many states have created new voting restrictions, it's heartening to see a state move aggressively in the opposite direction. The Associated Press reports on a historic move in Virginia:
More than 200,000 convicted felons will be able to cast ballots in the swing state of Virginia in November's election under a sweeping executive order by Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe announced Friday that restores their rights to vote and run for office.
 
The Democrat said his actions would help undo Virginia's long history of trying to suppress the black vote.
"Too often in both our distant and recent history, politicians have used their authority to restrict people's ability to participate in our democracy," McAuliffe said in a statement. "Today we are reversing that disturbing trend and restoring the rights of more than 200,000 of our fellow Virginians, who work, raise families and pay taxes in every corner of our Commonwealth."
 
To understand how we reached this point, it's worth noting, as MSNBC's Ari Melber reported a while back, that laws blocking ex-felons from voting have a major impact on elections. Nearly 6 million Americans are currently denied the right to vote because of their criminal records, with half of the nation's states barring former convicts from voting even after they've paid their debt to society.
 
Virginia, in particular, created some of the most punitive policies in the nation. That is, until now.
 
Also note, 200,000 people is a significant number of Americans. To put this total in perspective, consider the fact that roughly 4 million Virginians voted in the 2012 presidential election, so when we talk about 200,000 people, that's roughly 5 percent of the electorate.
 
In 2012, President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in the commonwealth by less than 4 percentage points.
 
The Washington Post added that McAuliffe's order, which covers former felons who are not on probation or parole, is believed to be "the biggest-ever single action taken to restore voting rights in this country."
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to guests and supporters during a rally at the Indiana State Fairgrounds on April 20, 2016 in Indianapolis, Ind. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty)

The 'evolution' of Donald Trump

04/22/16 12:53PM

Periodically over the course of the last year or so, voters have been told to expect some changes in Donald Trump's persona. As the presidential race entered new stages, Americans would begin to see Trump in a new light. About six weeks ago, the Associated Press went so far as to report that the Republican frontrunner "is unmistakably evolving into a general election candidate."
 
But these attempts at change, while probably sincere, have been sporadic and fleeting. Every time we're told to expect a new-and-improved Trump, the candidate seems to revert to form. To borrow a phrase, the more Trump changes, the more he stays the same.
 
The expectations of a possible evolution, however, continue. The New York Times reports today, for example, on the message Trump's new top aide took to Republican National Committee members in South Florida this week.
Donald J. Trump's newly installed campaign chief sought to assure members of the Republican National Committee on Thursday night that Mr. Trump recognized the need to reshape his persona and that his campaign would begin working with the political establishment that he has scorned to great effect.
 
Addressing about 100 committee members at the spring meeting here, many of them deeply skeptical about Mr. Trump's candidacy, the campaign chief, Paul Manafort, bluntly suggested the candidate's incendiary style amounted to an act.
Arguing that a more professional phase is poised to begin, Manafort assured RNC members, "That's what's important for you to understand: That he gets it, and that the part he's been playing is evolving."
 
Manafort acknowledged that Trump may not seem popular now, but in the coming months, as Trump's evolution continues, his negative ratings "are going to come down."
 
If this sounds to you an awful lot like wishful thinking, you're not alone.

Friday's Campaign Round-Up, 4.22.16

04/22/16 12:00PM

Today's installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.
 
* Donald Trump's campaign isn't accustomed to spending a lot of money, but last night, his team announced a $2 million ad buy in Pennsylvania, which hosts its presidential primary on Tuesday.
 
* Speaking of spending, Bernie Sanders' campaign continues to put its massive financial advantage to use: it's now outspending Hillary Clinton in five of the upcoming primaries over the next couple of weeks, in some instances by two-to-one margins. (Note: Sanders also outspent Clinton in New York by a two-to-one margin.)
 
* In Maryland, the latest Monmouth University poll shows Clinton leading Sanders, 57% to 25%.
 
* In Wisconsin's closely watched Senate race, the latest Wisconsin Public Radio poll shows former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R), 51% to 41%.
 
* To the surprise of no one, the Republican National Committee held its spring meeting in South Florida this week, and decided not to change its convention rules.
 
* In a bit of a surprise, Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Fla.) announced yesterday she's retiring at the end of this term, and by all appearances, she's preparing for a gubernatorial campaign in Florida in 2018. (As Floridians probably know, Graham's father, Bob Graham, is a legendary figure in the state who served two terms as governor in the 1980s before becoming a U.S. senator.)
 
* After Bernie Sanders urged his followers to contribute to Lucy Flores' (D) congressional campaign in Nevada, they did: she's raised $428,000 over the last three weeks.
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz waves to supporters after speaking at the Colorado State Republican Assembly at the Broadmoor World Arena on April 9, 2016, in Colorado Springs, Colo. (Photo by Stacie Scott/The Gazette/AP)

Ted Cruz's awkward pitch: Second is the new first

04/22/16 11:20AM

In every way that matters, Bernie Sanders, a Vermont liberal, has practically nothing in common with Ted Cruz, a Texas conservative. But in the 2016 presidential race, the two find themselves in a similar situation.
 
Both are senators who've exceeded the expectations of much of the political establishment with effective campaigns. Both face daunting delegate math that will make it difficult for them to prevail. And both believe they can work within their respective party's rules to win the nomination, even if it means overriding the will of voters.
 
Sanders' efforts in this area have already drawn considerable scrutiny, especially this week after two of his top aides offered competing takes for the road ahead. The senator himself acknowledged yesterday, however, "Look, if we do not have a majority, it's going to be hard for us to win."
 
Hard, but not literally impossible. The Vermonter realizes his campaign could, in theory, try to convince party officials and insiders to give Sanders the nomination anyway, even if it means defying voters' will. The process, controversial though it may be, invites the possibility of the second-place candidate finishing first.
 
And then there's Ted Cruz, thinking along similar lines. The Republicans' process is a little different -- there's technically no such thing as a GOP superdelegate -- but the Texas senator realizes that party delegates could elevate him at the national convention if the race goes to a second ballot.
 
The challenge, the New York Times reported today, is making the pitch in a compelling and principled way.
Mr. Cruz has struggled to formulate a concise argument rebutting Mr. Trump's claim that the top vote-getter deserves the nomination, alternately citing the number of former Republican presidential hopefuls now supporting him, general election polls and Mr. Trump's "hard ceiling" of support.
 
On Wednesday, Mr. Cruz told reporters at the Republican National Committee's spring meeting in Florida that only Mr. Trump's loyalists believed that the candidate with the most votes should be awarded the nomination. When it was pointed out that a majority of Republican voters seemed to agree -- 62 percent, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll last week -- Mr. Cruz largely ignored that fact.
 
"We want to win, Republicans want to win," he said, before turning to a new talking point: Even Abraham Lincoln, the greatest Republican of them all, lagged in delegates at the outset of the party's 1860 convention.
This isn't exactly what Sanders has argued in his race, but it's close.
People walk past the U.S. Capitol dome in the hours before President Barack Obama delivers the State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress in Washington, Jan. 12, 2016. (Photo by Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

GOP wants to 'help' the Library of Congress with word choice

04/22/16 10:40AM

A House Appropriations panel this week took up a spending bill that should have been pretty uncontroversial: the package provides funding for basic federal functions such government printing, the Capitol Police, and congressional operations.
 
But Roll Call reported that lawmakers ran into an unexpected controversy.
[T]he bulk of an hour of debate in Wednesday's Appropriations markup was devoted to a two-word phrase the Library of Congress is trying to excise from its lexicon: "illegal alien."
 
The Legislative Branch subcommittee's decision to insist that the federal library continue using the phrase prompted the panel's ranking Democrat to vote against the appropriations bill.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who also happens to be the chair of the Democratic National Committee, reminded her colleagues, "We're appropriators. We're supposed to be deciding how much money we allocate for each of these agencies. It is not our place to be debating the two halves of a particular term."
 
Let's back up and consider how we got to this point. Late last month, officials at the Library of Congress, facing some pressure from immigration activists and research professionals at the American Library Association, agreed it's time to update their reference catalog. Going forward, they said, "aliens" will be labeled "noncitizens," while "illegal immigration" will be listed as "unauthorized immigration."
 
That apparently didn't sit well with 20 House Republicans, led by Rep. Diane Black (R-Tenn.), who actually introduced federal legislation -- I'm not kidding -- that would require the Library of Congress to use the old language in its reference catalog, whether the institution likes it or not.

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