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'They just want somebody to fall in love with'

07/31/15 08:00AM

The parlor game for 2016 campaign observers is based on a straightforward question: "If Donald Trump's support is eventually going to fall, what will be the cause?"
The "if" poses its own challenge, but even if we accept the premise, it's not unreasonable to wonder what will cause Trump's lead in the polls to evaporate. Some Republicans assume this is a fleeting fad that cannot be sustained . Others believe the GOP's primary contest won't really begin in earnest until after the debates begin and TV ads start airing, making Trump's early surge irrelevant. Still others assume the former reality-show host will eventually say something so outrageous that he'll effectively commit political suicide.
But the point that brings comfort to many in the political establishment is the issue of electability -- Trump would face extremely long odds as a general-election candidate, and Republican primary voters, desperate for a win, will start thinking strategically in 2016.
Or will they? As Rachel noted on the show last night, the latest NBC News/Marist poll asked Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire for their 2016 preferences, but they also asked a question that was arguably more interesting:
"Which is more important to you: a Republican nominee for president who shares your position on most issues, or a Republican nominee for president who has the best chance of winning the White House?"
The results weren't even close. In New Hampshire, 67% of GOP voters want a candidate they agree with, while only 29% are principally concerned with electability. In Iowa, the results were practically identical.
This isn't about Trump, per se. This is about what we're learning about Republican voters themselves.
GOP field expands to 17 with Gilmore added

GOP field expands to 17 with Gilmore added

07/31/15 06:53AM

Rachel Maddow reports that former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore has filed paperwork to run for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, even as the criteria for the first major Republican event, the Fox News debate, remain shrouded in mystery. watch

Citations for the July 30, 2015 TRMS

07/31/15 01:34AM

Tonight's guests:

  • Jessica Greif, reporter for The Oregonian
  • Lonnie and Sandy Phillips, whose daughter, Jessica, was killed in the Aurora theater gun massacre, sued online weapons vendors
  • Jonathan Lowy, Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence

Tonight's links:

read more

Thursday's Mini-Report, 7.30.15

07/30/15 05:30PM

Today's edition of quick hits:
* Ohio: "The University of Cincinnati officer indicted for murder in the fatal shooting of an unarmed motorist pleaded not guilty Thursday morning and is being held on $1 million bond. Ray Tensing, 25, appeared briefly in Cincinnati court shackled and wearing a prison jumpsuit."
* Discouraging news out of Syria: "The commander of a group of Syrian fighters trained by the United States has been kidnapped by Al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria, his group said in a statement Thursday."
* Georgia: "Atlanta police said surveillance footage shows two men placing Confederate flags at two of Atlanta's most notable landmarks early Thursday: Ebenezer Baptist Church and Martin Luther King, Jr. National Historic Site Visitor Center. As investigators worked to identify the men and their motive, church and civic leaders decried the act as terrorism, vowing not to be threatened."
* At this point, the Senate bill defunding Planned Parenthood is likely to get a vote next week, but it doesn't appear to have the support needed to pass.
* The Iran bill picked up another notable supporter today, with Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) endorsing the international nuclear agreement.
* On a related note "[House Minority Leader Pelosi] on Thursday hailed Obama for keeping the global negotiators at the table, characterizing the deal as 'a diplomatic masterpiece.' She said House Democrats are lining up behind the deal in numbers sufficient to uphold a veto of the expected Republican effort to sink the deal."
* Highway bill: "The Senate passed its long-term highway bill Thursday, though their work on federal infrastructure funding isn't over. Senators voted 65-34 to approve the six-year bill, which funds federal highway and infrastructure projects for three years."
Paul LePage

Just when things couldn't get worse for Paul LePage...

07/30/15 04:52PM

Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) is caught up in a doozy of a controversy. As regular readers know, a Maine charter school recently hired state House Speaker Mark Eves (D), but LePage, a fierce opponent of Democratic legislators, threatened the school -- either fire Eves or the governor would cut off the school's state funding. In effect, LePage played the role of a mobster saying, "It's a nice school you have there; it'd be a shame if something happened to it."
The school, left with no options, reluctantly acquiesced. The problem, of course, is that governors are not supposed to use state resources to punish people they don't like. By most measures, it's an impeachable offense.
As of today, as the Portland Press Herald reported, it's also the basis for a civil suit.
Democratic House Speaker Mark Eves will file a civil lawsuit Thursday against Gov. Paul LePage, alleging that the governor used taxpayer money and the power of his office to prevent his hiring at a private school in Fairfield.
The lawsuit, to be filed in U.S. District Court in Portland, has been anticipated ever since the board of directors at Good Will-Hinckley voted to rescind its offer to pay Eves $150,000 a year to become the organization's next president. Eves said that the board told him before his contract was terminated that LePage threatened to eliminate $530,000 in annual state funding for the school unless it removed him from the job.
"Acting out of personal rage, vindictiveness and partisan malice, Gov. Paul LePage blackmailed a private school that serves at-risk children into firing its president, the Speaker of Maine's House of Representatives," the complaint reads.
The discovery phase of this case ought to be a doozy.
Remember, the Tea Party governor hasn't actually denied the allegations, and neither have LePage's allies. The Maine Republican did argue this morning, however, that when he threatened the school it was comparable to LePage intervening in a domestic-violence dispute.
"It's just like one time when I stepped in ... when a man was beating his wife," the governor said. "Should have I stepped in? Legally, No. But I did. And I'm not embarrassed about doing it."
I honestly haven't the foggiest idea what that's supposed to mean in this context. Unless the state House Speaker intended to physically assault the charter school, the comparison appears to be gibberish.
President Lyndon B. Johnson signs the Medicare Bill, July 30, 1965. (Photo by White House Press Office/Archivio GBB/Agenzia Contrasto/Redux)

50 years later, Medicare stands strong amidst attacks

07/30/15 04:03PM

Republican presidential hopeful Jeb Bush is eager to "phase out" Medicare and replace the system altogether. The Paul Ryan budget plan, widely embraced by GOP officials, would have scrapped Medicare and replaced it with a voucher system. Marco Rubio, another national 2016 candidate, is also fighting to eliminate Medicare -- social-insurance programs like these, he's said, have "actually weakened us as a people."
Exactly 50 years ago today, President Lyndon Johnson signed Medicare into law, and the Republican attacks against the system have been pretty consistent ever since -- as the 2016 race shows. But looking at the bigger picture, the Huffington Post's Jonathan Cohn had a great piece today on the half-century of progress, despite the partisan conflicts.
[I]f some seniors still struggle with medical bills, the situation is far better than it was five decades ago, when half of the elderly population had no insurance at all. Studies have shown that Medicare has meant substantially smaller out-of-pocket spending for seniors and maybe (though not certainly) longer lives.
The financial protection that the program provides to beneficiaries helps explain why just one in 10 seniors now lives in poverty. That's roughly a third of what it was in the mid-1960s.
I'm often fascinated with how profoundly wrong Republicans have been in their predictions about the Affordable Care Act -- pretty much every possible forecast the GOP made turned out to the opposite of what happened -- but conservative predictions about Medicare, before and after its passage, are arguably even more striking.
Take Ronald Reagan, for example.
Women hold up signs during a women's pro-choice rally on Capitol Hill, July 11, 2013 in Washington, DC.

GOP uses Planned Parenthood as a pretense for a possible shutdown

07/30/15 12:55PM

In April 2011, the newly elected House Republican majority was ready, if not eager, to shut down the government. Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), just three months into his tenure, told the White House that without some spending cuts, GOP lawmakers simply would not keep the government's lights on.
There was a flurry of meetings, and both sides worked out a deal for some modest cuts. But then Boehner went back to Democrats with a fresh demand: Republicans wanted to cut Planned Parenthood, too.
President Obama refused, Boehner backed down, and the matter was resolved, but more than four years later, the demand has made a comeback. Politico published this report overnight.
Calling next week's Senate roll call to defund Planned Parenthood a "legislative show vote," GOP firebrand Ted Cruz said Republicans should do everything they can to eliminate federal money for the group — even if it means a government shutdown fight this fall.
He's not alone. On Wednesday afternoon, 18 House Republicans told leadership that they "cannot and will not support any funding resolution ... that contains any funding for Planned Parenthood." Meanwhile, GOP social conservatives like Sens. James Lankford of Oklahoma and Jeff Sessions of Alabama said they'd consider supporting an effort to attach a spending rider that would eliminate Planned Parenthood's $528 million in annual government funding to must-pass spending legislation this fall.
It's probably worth noting that Politico's headline, "How Planned Parenthood could shut down the government," paints a picture that's slightly askew -- the health care organization itself wouldn't cause a shutdown; Republicans' opposition would.
Conservative media is likely to be on board with the plan. Last night, Erick Erickson, a prominent far-right voice in Republican media, published an angry missive under the headline, "Shut Down The Government. Now." He wrote, "If Barack Obama is willing to risk a government shutdown because he demands our tax dollars continue funding an organization that kills our children and sells their organs, we should have that fight."
How subtle.

Thursday's Campaign Round-Up, 7.30.15

07/30/15 12:00PM

Today's installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.
* A new Quinnipiac poll is the latest to show Donald Trump with a significant national lead in the Republican presidential race. He tops Scott Walker in the poll, 20% to 13%, followed by Jeb Bush at 10%. The rest of the massive field is at 6% or lower.
* The same Quinnipiac poll, however, asked voters about a hypothetical general-election match-up with Trump. The apparent GOP frontrunner trailed Hillary Clinton by 12 points, 48% to 36%, and Trump is down eight points to Bernie Sanders, 45% to 37%.
* On a related note, against Jeb Bush, Quinnipiac found Clinton trails by one point while Sanders is down by five, and against Walker, Clinton leads by one while Sanders again trails by five.
* Though I can't speak to the reliability of this pollster, a new St. Pete Polls survey shows Trump leading Jeb Bush in Florida, 26% to 20%. Scott Walker is third in the poll with 12%, followed by Marco Rubio with 10% in his own home state.
* Speaking of Rubio, when the far-right Floridian launched his campaign, he asked those who contributed to his Senate re-election campaign to transfer their support to his White House campaign. Bloomberg Politics found that "more than 260" of these donors chose not to, and at least 64 of these donors have written checks to Rubio's national rivals.
* As Rachel noted on the show last night, Bernie Sanders supporters held several thousand house parties nationwide last night, with a reported 100,000 people signed up to attend an event in their area.
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore speaks to guests at the Iowa Freedom Summit on Jan. 24, 2015 in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty)

GOP presidential field reaches 17 people

07/30/15 11:22AM

When Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) recently kicked off his presidential campaign, the understandable reaction from many Americans was simple: "Another one?" The GOP field was already packed with 15 candidates, but Kasich nevertheless created a Sweet 16 for his party.
But those who responded to the news by assuming the Republican field couldn't possibly get any bigger jumped to the wrong conclusion. Yesterday, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) filed his paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, becoming the 17th candidate.
The Republican said back at the beginning of July that he planned a White House run.
"I bring to the table experience that others don't have," Gilmore said in an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch in July. He told the paper that he'll make his announcement during the first week of August. He served as Virginia's governor from 1998 to 2002.
The Virginian will reportedly launch his national bid in a formal event early next month.
I hesitate to say this -- these days, you just never know -- but Gilmore's entry really does seem to complete the Republicans' 2016 field. Back in May, I put together what I saw a fairly comprehensive list of possible GOP candidates, and I came up with 22 names. Of those 22, 17 have launched White House bids, while four others have bowed out.
That leaves former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R), who spent some time in New Hampshire earlier this year and expressed an interest in the race, but who has effectively disappeared from the public stage in recent months.
In other words, the current GOP field of 17 is done. Probably. I think.


About The Rachel Maddow Show

Launched in 2008, “The Rachel Maddow Show” follows the machinations of policy making in America, from local political activism to international diplomacy. Rachel Maddow looks past the distractions of political theater and stunts and focuses on the legislative proposals and policies that shape American life - as well as the people making and influencing those policies and their ultimate outcome, intended or otherwise.

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