Today's installment of campaign-related news items that won't necessarily generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:
* In Iowa, a new Bloomberg Politics poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders among Democrats by a two-to-one margin, 50% to 24%. Martin O'Malley is a distant third at 2%, and Lincoln Chafee is at roughly 0%.
* In New Hampshire, the Bloomberg Politics poll shows Clinton with a slightly larger advantage over Sanders, 56% to 24%. O'Malley and Chafee fared about as well as they did in Iowa.
* Speaking of the Granite State, a "quirky" filing process may cause trouble for Sanders getting onto the Democratic ballot: "State law says that presidential candidates must be a registered member of the party whose primary ballot they are trying to get on." Sanders is not a Democrat, which may complicate matters.
* Though the latest NBC poll showed Clinton with comfortable leads over the leading Republican candidates, a new Fox News poll points to more competitive match-ups. Fox shows Clinton and Jeb Bush tied in a hypothetical general election, for example. The same poll showed Clinton leading Marco Rubio by just one point and Rand Paul by four, though her advantages over the rest of the GOP field are much larger.
* Though Florida Republicans initially struggled to recruit a Senate candidate in next year's open-seat contest, they now have a growing primary field. Rep. Jeff Miller (R) has reportedly decided to throw his hat in the ring, joining Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez Cantera (R).
They would never admit it. Ask any Republican in Washington -- or in any gubernatorial office, for that matter -- and they'll express on-the-record disappointment that President Obama won big today at the U.S. Supreme Court.
But let's be clear about the broader dynamic: Democrats aren't the only ones breathing a sigh of relief this morning.
Heading into this morning, some basic policy truths were clear. We knew, for example, that congressional Republicans have made no progress in creating an alternative to the Affordable Care Act -- despite more than five years of broken promises -- and in all likelihood, they never would.
We also knew that most of those who would suffer from a plaintiff victory in King v. Burwell would be middle-income families in red states who would naturally look to their GOP representatives for help. Those same representatives would face enormous pressure from right-wing institutions to let the American health care system burn and treat affected families like collateral damage in a political war.
And then there were the Republican governors -- some of whom also happen to be presidential candidates -- who would have been under pressure to create exchange marketplaces in their states to prevent constituents from suffering. Of course, those same governors would have simultaneously faced equal pressure from partisans and ideologues to do exactly nothing.
After Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts upheld the constitutionality of "Obamacare" three years ago, many conservatives deemed him a "traitor" to his ostensible Republican allies, and I suspect there will be plenty of similar rhetoric today. But the truth remains that Roberts just did the GOP an enormous favor -- had the court created systemic chaos, and scrapped benefits for millions of red-state families, Republicans would have confronted an incredible mess they were woefully unprepared to clean up. Worse, there's a big election coming up, and the GOP was poised to be on the hook for hurting a lot of people out of nothing but spite.
Effectively immediately, Republicans can go back to doing what they're good at: whining incessantly about an effective law, while avoiding any actual work on health care policy.
If you're one of the millions of Americans whose health security was at risk in King v. Burwell, you can now exhale.
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in the Obama administration's favor this morning in a 6-3 ruling. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote the ruling for the majority, and was joined by Justices Kennedy, Ginsburg, Breyer, Sotomayor, and Kagan.
This post will be updated shortly (and repeatedly).
First Update: The full ruling is available online here.
Second Update: Justices Scalia, Alito, and Thomas were in the minority. Scalia, apparently annoyed that both Republican challenges to the Affordable Care Act have now failed, wrote in the dissent that he's inclined to start calling the law "SCOTUScare."
Third Update: Note, Roberts wrote the ruling in June 2012 -- exactly three years ago tomorrow, in fact -- that upheld the constitutionality of the health care reform law. In today's decision, the Chief Justice noted, accurately, "Congress passed the Affordable Care Act to improve health insurance markets, not to destroy them."
Fourth Update: In the majority ruling, Roberts acknowledges the ambiguity of the offending phrase, but wrote, "In this instance, the context and structure of the Act compel us to depart from what would otherwise be the most natural reading of the pertinent statutory phrase." This is, of course, how American jurisprudence is supposed to work -- the idea of gutting a massive law by examining half a sentence out of context is absurd.
The Supreme Court will hand down a ruling in King v. Burwell sometime over the next several days -- possibly as early as this morning -- leaving much of the political world to wonder how much damage, if any, Republican justices intend to do the American health care system.
While we wait, however, the legal controversy comes against an amazing backdrop. Despite the partisan peril the Affordable Care Act faces, the system itself has never been stronger or more effective. The latest CBS News poll even shows rising popularity for "Obamacare."
As the U.S. Supreme Court prepares to issue a ruling that could impact the Affordable Care Act, 47 percent of Americans now approve of the health care law, the highest in CBS News and New York Times polling (although support is still short of a majority). For the first time, more Americans now approve than disapprove of the ACA, but by a narrow margin.
Less than a third of the country supports the Republicans' repeal agenda. What's more, a whopping 70% of Americans believe the Supreme Court should leave the current subsidies in place -- only half of GOP voters agree with their own party's litigation -- while 64% want Congress to protect the subsidies if the court strikes them down in states without their own exchange marketplaces.
But public attitudes are really just part of a broader success story. We learned on Tuesday, for example, that one of the ACA's principal goals -- expanding the availability to health insurance -- is being met with impressive efficiency. The New York Timesreported:
A couple of days ago, the latest Suffolk poll in New Hampshire showed Jeb Bush leading the GOP presidential field with 14% support, which surprised no one. The poll ended up causing quite a stir, however, because of who was in second place: Donald Trump enjoyed 11% support and was the only other candidate to reach double digits in New Hampshire.
There was ample reason to be skeptical. The poll's sample size, for example, was quite modest, and most recent polling in the Granite State doesn't show Trump with nearly that much support.
A day later, however, another poll -- this time, national survey results from Fox News -- raised eyebrows again.
There's been a lineup change in the race for the GOP nomination, as businessman Donald Trump moves up after declaring his candidacy. He's now second in the order after former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who also got an uptick in support after his formal announcement. [...]
Bush tops the list of GOP contenders with 15 percent support among Republican primary voters. That's up from 12 percent last month and his best showing yet. Support for Trump more than doubled since his announcement and that catapults him into the top tier at 11 percent. He's followed by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 10 percent.
How many other candidates reached double digits in the Fox poll? None. Just the brother of a failed president, the host of a reality show, and a retired right-wing neurosurgeon who sees parallels between modern American life and Nazi Germany.
Regardless, if Trump is now running second nationally, at least in this poll, is it time to start looking at him as a serious contender for the GOP presidential nomination?
Sometimes, when it comes to the economy, boring news is good news. Take the latest Labor Department report on initial unemployment claims, for example.
The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits edged up by 3,000 to 271,000 in the seven days from June 14 to June 20, but layoffs remain quite low amid a steady increase in hiring and a tightening labor market. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected claims to total a seasonally adjusted 274,000.
The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, fell by 3,250 to 273,750, the Labor Department said Thursday.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it’s worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it’s best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it’s considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape. At this point, we’ve been below 300,000 in 35 of the last 41 weeks.
For those engaged in the debate over trade, the last six weeks have been a roller coaster unlike anything the political world has seen in a while. Opponents of President Obama's trade agenda were winning, the supporters were winning. Then opponents reclaimed the advantage, only to see supporters take it right back.
As of late yesterday, however, it appears the White House and its unusual set of allies are going to get exactly what they want. NBC News reported last night:
A critical aspect of President Barack Obama's economic legacy got a boost on Wednesday when the Senate voted to approve giving him "fast-track" authority to negotiate a sweeping 12-nation trade pact without the threat of Congress adding amendments or filibustering the final deal.
The vote was 60-38. The measure now heads to the president's desk for signature.
The final roll call on the Senate vote is online here.
Note, Congress passed Trade Promotion Authority -- better known as "fast-track" -- without the labor-friendly Trade Adjustment Assistance, but that will soon change. Under the plan hatched by the president and Republican leaders, TAA will be on its way to the Oval Office by tomorrow. Indeed, it passed the Senate late yesterday on a voice vote and is expected to clear the House with relative ease.
House Democrats originally blocked TAA, which they support, in the hopes of derailing the larger trade agenda, but now that fast-track has already passed, the Democratic minority no longer has an incentive to oppose the policy they like. Several House Dems who oppose the trade agenda acknowledged yesterday that the fight is "over."
That's largely true, though there's likely to be one more round.
John Hawkins, former president of the black student body at Ole Miss, talks with Rachel Maddow about his refusal to wave the Confederate battle flag as a cheerleader for the school, a stance that led to the phasing out the use of that flag by the school. watch
Rachel Maddow reports the breaking news of the arrest of corrections officer Gene Palmer, a prison guard in connection with the escape of two convicted murderers from the maximum security wing of the Clinton Correctional Facility in Upstate New York. watch
Paul Butler, Georgetown Law professor and former federal prosecutor, talks with Rachel Maddow about what is means that the Justice Department will likely file federal hate crimes charges against the Charleston church shooter for killing nine people. watch
* More on this in the morning: "After no shortage of fits and starts, the centerpiece of President Barack Obama's trade agenda -- Trade Promotion Authority -- is finally heading to his desk."
* The Pakistani death toll has topped 800: "After four days of punishing heat that killed hundreds of people in this southern port city, the temperature and death toll were lower on Wednesday. Health and rescue officials said the number of deaths, which have surpassed 800, was down on Wednesday as the temperature dropped to 98 degrees Fahrenheit."
* Ali Awni al-Harzi: "An American drone strike last week killed a midlevel operative with the Islamic State who had been a conduit for the militant group's outreach to extremists in North Africa, Defense Department officials said on Monday."
* France: "French President Francois Hollande branded alleged spying by the National Security Agency on him and two predecessors as 'unacceptable' on Wednesday."
* South Carolina: "The Chief Magistrate widely criticized for soliciting sympathy for the family of a man accused of fatally shooting nine people during a Bible study last week has been replaced, according to a Wednesday order from the S.C. Supreme Court."
* Baltimore, Part I: "Freddie Gray suffered a single 'high-energy injury' to his neck and spine -- most likely caused when the police van in which he was riding suddenly decelerated, according to a copy of the autopsy report obtained by The Baltimore Sun."
* Baltimore, Part II: each of the officers charged in the Gray case has pleaded not guilty.
* Boston: "A choked-up Dzhokhar Tsarnaev apologized in court Wednesday to the victims of the Boston Marathon bombings, then was formally sentenced to die for the attack. 'You told us just how unbearable it was, this thing I put you through,' Tsarnaev said at a hearing in Boston. 'Now, I am sorry for the lives that I have taken.'"
* Eastern Europe: "The U.S. will spread about 250 tanks, armored vehicles and other military equipment across six former Soviet bloc nations to help reassure NATO allies facing threats from Russia and terrorist groups, Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced Tuesday."
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