Voting booths await voters in Red Oak, Iowa, Tuesday, June 3, 2014, ahead of the Iowa primary elections.
Nati Harnik/AP

Trump says race looks ‘pretty good,’ but latest polls disagree

Donald Trump told an audience in Colorado yesterday that his presidential campaign is “doing pretty good in the polls.” His grammar wasn’t the only problematic part of the claim.
Donald Trump would need to stage a historic comeback to win the White House in 20 days as key slices of the electorate drift away from his candidacy, according to the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll.

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Trump by 9 percentage points in the survey of likely voters, taken after a leaked video prompted a series of women to come forward alleging the Republican made unwanted sexual advances.
According to the Bloomberg Politics poll, Clinton’s nine-point advantage is consistent both in a four-way contest (47% to 38%) and in a head-to-head match-up (50% to 41%).

The same poll found Clinton with a one-point lead among men – a constituency that’s been reliably in Trump’s corner all year – and showed President Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama are the two most popular political figures in the country.

The Bloomberg results are roughly in line with the new Fox News poll, released overnight, which found Clinton ahead by six points in a four-way race, and seven points in a two-way race.

In terms of averages, the Huffington Post’s polling aggregator now shows Clinton’s national lead at eight points, her largest advantage since early August.

And while this may be discouraging for Trump’s followers, the state polls are arguably worse.

A new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll was released this morning showing Clinton with a modest lead in Arizona, one of the nation’s most consistent red states, voting Republican in 15 of the last 16 presidential elections.

This follows a Monmouth University poll released yesterday that found Clinton’s lead over Trump in Nevada growing to seven points, 47% to 40%.

Adding insult to injury, a poll conducted by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs found Trump ahead in Texas, but only by three points, 41% to 38%. While it seems far-fetched to think Clinton has a chance in the Lone Star State, this isn’t the only recent poll that showed the Democrat narrowly trailing in Texas.

As of this morning, the New York Times’ Upshot predictive model shows Clinton with a 92% chance of winning the presidential election, her strongest standing this year. FiveThirtyEight has a few different forecast models, but they’re all roughly in line with the Times’ projection.

Election Day is 20 days away. The third and final presidential debate is tonight in Las Vegas.