Thursday’s Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.16

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.
 
* The new national PPP poll, which Rachel discussed at the top of last night’s show, found Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in a head-to-head match-up, 48% to 44%. A national Fox News poll, also released last night, showed the Democrat with a slightly larger lead, 44% to 38%.
 
* Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight unveiled its first 2016 election forecast yesterday, which will be regularly updated as the season progresses. The initial forecast found Clinton with a 73.8% chance of victory using the “polls-plus” model (which takes a variety of factors, including the economy and historical data), while the “polls-only” model (which looks exclusively at survey data) gives Clinton an 80.2% chance of success.
 
* For the second time in as many weeks, Trump used social media yesterday to promote a poll that shows him losing.
 
* The Clinton campaign announced this morning it will begin airing this ad in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. Note, Nebraska is one of only two states to divide their electoral votes by district, and President Obama won Nebraska’s 2nd in the 2008 race.
 
* Despite Pennsylvania’s importance, Politico reports that local GOP leaders in some of the state’s most pivotal counties “say there’s been almost no outreach from his campaign so far, and there’s scant evidence of any Trump-driven ground organization.”
 
* In New Jersey, where Trump has said he expects to compete, a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released last night found Clinton up by 21 points in the Garden State, 52% to 31%.
 
* Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) continues to support Trump’s candidacy, but he rebuked his candidate over Trump’s renewed call for torture. “It’s not the United States of America. It’s not what we are all about. It’s not what we are,” the Arizona senator and former prisoner of war said yesterday.
 
* And in Colorado, Gordon Klingenschmitt, arguably the nation’s most notorious demon-hunting lawmaker, lost this week in his bid for higher state office.
 
 
 

Thursday's Campaign Round-Up, 6.30.16