Pausing for a minute to understand that Nate Silver chart on Democratic momentum against Scott Walker in Wisconsin

Updated
Pausing for a minute to understand that Nate Silver chart on Democratic momentum against Scott Walker in Wisconsin
Pausing for a minute to understand that Nate Silver chart on Democratic momentum against Scott Walker in Wisconsin

In last night’s follow-up segment to Tuesday’s recall election in Wisconsin, Rachel explained why the results in those six districts suggest that a recall effort against Governor Scott Walker might be more feasible than Walker is comfortable with. Rachel’s explanation was clear enough, with red circles and all of that, but sometimes I just need to sit and stare at a chart like this in order to get it.

What we’re looking at is a comparison of the election results in those six districts from when Scott Walker was running for governor in November, and Tuesday’s recall elections. In all but one district, the Democrats did better and the Republicans did worse.

If you use those six districts as a model for the whole state, then the amount of improvement by Democrats and the percent of support lost by Republicans means that Scott Walker’s state-wide victory last November would have been too close to call.

This might explain why so many of the Democrats interview Tuesday night were more interested in the momentum behind their get-out-the-vote efforts and outreach to rural areas. Even with four losses, the broader perspective of a rising Democratic tide was one of the night’s most exciting results for Wisconsin Democrats.

Pausing for a minute to understand that Nate Silver chart on Democratic momentum against Scott Walker in Wisconsin

Updated