Republicans look like they're about to capture the New York congressional seat vacated by Congressman Anthony Weiner. The district was already going conservative in a hurry, even before Representative Weiner got himself into so much trouble.
A new Public Policy Polling survey (pdf) finds Rick Perry trailing President Obama by a single point, and Mitt Romney winning by four. Given that, it's not surprising that Republican Bob Turner -- the "no Ground Zero mosque candidate" -- is leading Democrat David Welprin by six points. The special election's tomorrow.
It may be that NY9 is a somewhat single-minded district, with U.S. Israel policy showing up in the PPP poll as a very important issue and disapproval of President Obama's on Israel at 54 percent. PPP says Democrats should pay careful attention to what's happening in NY-9:
Last year a lot of the races Democrats lost were because their voters didn't show up and the electorate was far more conservative than for a Presidential year. When you lose that way you can say, well, our voters will come back out in 2012 and we'll be fine. But there is no enthusiasm gap here. Obama voters are showing up in the same numbers they did in 2008. But only 65% of them are voting Democratic. That's a really big cause for concern.
And check the crosstabs -- nearly one in four voters who went for President Obama last time say they're now backing the Republican to replace Anthony Weiner.