A voter casts their ballot at a polling place at the CrossWay Christian Church in Nashua, N.H., Feb. 9, 2016.
Photo by Cassi Alexandra/For The Washington Post/Getty

New polls show Clinton and Trump are not ‘essentially even’

We’ve reached the curious stage in the presidential race at which Donald Trump can’t even agree with himself about whether or not he’s losing. Over the weekend, for example, the presumptive Republican nominee acknowledged he’s “down” in the polls, but his deficit doesn’t really count – because he hasn’t “started yet” and some of his supporters are too embarrassed to admit it to pollsters.
Soon after, however, Trump said he’s “essentially even” with Hillary Clinton. He added on Fox News last night, “I have spent much less money than her [sic] and the result so far is the same. I should be credited for that.”
But the results so far are not “the same” and the two major-party presidential hopefuls are not “essentially even.” Consider, for example, the latest Monmouth University poll.
In a head-to-head contest for president, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 7 points among registered voters and by 8 points among likely voters. The Democrat’s lead shrinks by a point when potential third party support is taken into account.
Currently, Clinton holds a 7-point lead in a direct match-up against Trump – 47% to 40% among registered voters nationally…. Importantly, Clinton holds a 47% to 39% lead in the all-important swing states – ten states where the winning margin in the 2012 election was less than seven points.
A new CNN poll points in a similar direction, showing Clinton ahead of Trump in a head-to-head match-up, 47% to 42%. Overall averages put Clinton’s advantage a little higher.
As for state-by-state polls, Quinnipiac released new results this morning that are raising eyebrows:
* In Florida, Clinton leads Trump by eight points, 47% to 39%. (A month ago, Quinnipiac showed Clinton up by one in Florida.)
* In Ohio, Clinton and Trump are tied at 40% each (A month ago, Quinnipiac showed Trump ahead by four points in Ohio.)
* In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Trump by just one point, 42% to 41%. (A month ago, Quinnipiac showed Clinton ahead by the same margin in Pennsylvania.)
These numbers don’t seem quite right – Clinton’s standing looks a little too good in Florida, and not good enough in Ohio and Pennsylvania – but for now, there aren’t a lot of other recent state polls to compare them to.