It’s certainly possible that, one day soon, the Donald Trump balloon will burst and the race for the Republican nomination will return to something resembling normalcy.
But today is not that day. Public Policy Polling released new survey results this morning out of New Hampshire, the nation’s first primary state.
1. Donald Trump: 35%
2. John Kasich: 11%
3. Carly Fiorina: 10%
4. Jeb Bush: 7%
4. Scott Walker: 7%
6. Ben Carson: 6%
Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio each have 4% support in the poll, while Rand Paul is now in 10th place with 3%.
Note, Jeb Bush has long been seen as the likely frontrunner in the Granite State, but if PPP is correct, at this point, Trump’s support in New Hampshire is now five times greater than the former governor’s. Adding insult to injury, only 38% of GOP primary voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Bush, while 41% have a negative impression.
Trump’s 35% is the strongest showing of any Republican in any New Hampshire poll this year. His New Hampshire support, at least for now, is roughly equivalent to the support for Bush, Walker, and Rubio combined – times two.
Also this morning, a new Monmouth poll is out, showing the Republicans’ standing in South Carolina, the nation’s second primary state. Maybe it will offer better news for the GOP establishment waiting for Trump Mania to end? Maybe not.
1. Donald Trump: 30%
2. Ben Carson: 15%
3. Jeb Bush: 9%
4. Marco Rubio: 6%
4. Carly Fiorina: 6%
6. Ted Cruz: 5%
Scott Walker and Lindsey Graham are tied for seventh place in the poll with 4% each. Note, this is Graham’s home state.
What’s especially striking about Trump’s support is how broad it is: he leads among South Carolina Republicans who describe themselves as “very conservative,” “somewhat conservative,” and “moderate to liberal.” Despite his general secularism, the New York real-estate developer also leads among evangelical Christians, picking up 33% of their support.
As we discussed yesterday, this isn’t supposed to last, and it may not. But at least for now, there are a whole lot of Republican insiders feeling awfully nervous about the state of the GOP race.