Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton pauses while speaking during the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Gala on Sept. 15, 2016 in Washington, D.C.
Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty

Latest polls show Clinton hanging on after rough patch

Last week wasn’t exactly easy for Hillary Clinton and her campaign team. The Democratic presidential hopeful got pneumonia; she and her aides didn’t handle the disclosure well; there was an embarrassing video of Clinton feeling ill at a 9/11 event; and much of the political conversation focused on her criticism of Donald Trump’s most racist and “deplorable” supporters.

Clinton, off the trail for a few days, saw the polls tighten and her odds of success fall. There was a renewed sense that Trump had a credible chance of becoming president after all.

With this in mind, it’s likely some Democrats are breathing just a little easier in light of the latest national polling. For example, a new McClatchy/Marist poll, out this morning, has the race shaping up this way:

Hillary Clinton: 45%
Donald Trump: 39%
Gary Johnson: 10%
Jill Stein: 4%

In a head-to-head match-up, Clinton’s lead in this poll is seven points, 48% to 41%.

The results are largely in line with the latest national Associated Press poll, which was also released this morning, and which also shows Clinton with a six-point advantage over her Republican rival in a four-way contest.

All of this also coincides with the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, released late Wednesday, which was nearly identical to the McClatchy/Marist results. Taken together, that’s three major national polls over the last three days – conducted after last week’s difficulties for the former Secretary of State – each of which found Clinton leading Trump by six points, even with the third-party candidates in the mix.

As for the overall averages, the major poll aggregators now point to Clinton ahead by three or four points. That’s hardly an overwhelming advantage, but after hitting last week’s rough patch, it’s likely the Democratic campaign is relieved to be leading at all.

The news is more complex at the state level, where there’s also plenty to chew on. The latest Quinnipiac polling, released yesterday, found Clinton up in Colorado and Virginia, while Trump has even larger leads in Georgia and Iowa.

The latest Fox News polling, meanwhile, found Trump with modest leads in North Carolina, Ohio, and Nevada.

The New York Times’ predictive model, meanwhile, shows Clinton with an 73% chance of winning the presidential election, which is down quite a bit from 90% a few weeks ago. FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast shows Clinton with a roughly 60% chance of success.

Election Day is in 46 days. In some states, early voting is already underway.

Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Polling

Latest polls show Clinton hanging on after rough patch