A group of Hofstra University students stand in front of a CNN trailer with images of Hillary Clinton, 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, and Donald Trump, 2016 Republican presidential nominee, ahead of the first U.S. presidential debate at Hofstra University, Sept.25, 2016, in Hempstead, N.Y.
Photo by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty

Latest polls make clear: Trump’s bad week made a big difference

Updated
Democrats and Republicans may not agree on much, but pretty much everyone can agree that Donald Trump had a rough week last week. An NBC News analysis described it as possibly “the worst week in presidential campaign history.” What was less clear is whether or not voters would notice and/or care.

There’s some fresh evidence that suggests last week did, in fact, matter. Take the new CBS News/New York Times poll, for example, which shows Hillary Clinton better positioned nationally than she was a month ago.

Four-way race: Clinton 45%, Trump 41%
Head-to-head match-up: Clinton 49%, Trump 43%

This is roughly in line with the results of the new national CNN poll:

Four-way race: Clinton 47%, Trump 42%
Head-to-head match-up: Clinton 51%, Trump 45%

And the new national NBC News/Survey Monkey poll:

Four-way race: Clinton 46%, Trump 40%
Head-to-head match-up: Clinton 50%, Trump 44%

As for the overall averages, the major poll aggregators now point to Clinton ahead by four to six points, which is an improvement for the Democratic nominee when compared to her recent pre-debate rough patch. Indeed, early last week, it looked like the 2016 race was effectively a dead-heat – a phrase no one is using now.

And what about the state-based polls? To the relief of Clinton and her supporters, they’re generally moving in her favor, too, at least for now.

Quinnipiac released several battleground polls yesterday, most of which showed the former Secretary of State in the lead. Clinton is up by five in Florida (46% to 41%), three in North Carolina (46% to 43%), and four in Pennsylvania (45% to 41%). The exception continues to be Ohio – a state President Obama won twice – where the same pollster found Trump ahead, in this case by a five-point margin (47% to 42%).

Also over the last 24 hours, Bloomberg Politics’ poll in North Carolina found Clinton with a narrow advantage (44% to 43%); a Monmouth University poll found Clinton with a sizable lead in Colorado (49% to 38%); and a Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania also showed Clinton well ahead (47% to 38%).

Note, Bloomberg’s North Carolina poll included Green Party nominee Jill Stein in the poll – she garnered 2% support – despite the fact that Stein will not appear on the ballot in the state.

The New York Times’ predictive model, meanwhile, shows Clinton with a 78% chance of winning the presidential election. FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast shows Clinton with a roughly 70% chance of success.

Election Day is five weeks from today. 



Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and Polling

Latest polls make clear: Trump's bad week made a big difference

Updated