John Kasich, left, and Donald Trump, second from right, argue across fellow candidates during the CNBC Republican presidential debate at the University of Colorado, Oct. 28, 2015, in Boulder, Colo.
Photo by Mark J. Terrill/AP

Latest polling shows surprisingly tight race in first GOP primary

Updated
There was a two-week lull in which there was very little new 2016 polling available, but with the holiday season behind us, new numbers are starting to appear.
 
Public Policy Polling, for example, released new results out of New Hampshire this afternoon:
 
1. Donald Trump: 29% (up from 27% a month ago)
2. Marco Rubio: 15% (up from 11%)
3. Christie 11: (up from 10%)
3. Kasich 11: (up from 8%)
5. Bush 10: (up from 5%) 
5. Cruz 10: (down from 13%)
 
The remaining candidates are each below 5%, including Ben Carson, who’s support has been cut nearly in half over the last month.
 
There’s quite a bit to chew on here, including this little tidbit: this is the first time in the entire election cycle in which a New Hampshire poll – any New Hampshire poll – has shown six different candidates reaching double-digit support.
 
To an important degree, this helps Trump a great deal: the more establishment-backed Republicans remain divided, the easier it is for the New York developer to stay on top.
 
On Twitter, Public Policy Polling flagged some additional details of note:
 
* 68% of Trump’s supporters in New Hampshire say they’re “firmly committed” to him, the best of any candidate, rivaled only by Cruz’s 63%. Less than half of Rubio’s, Christie’s, and Kasich’s supporters say the same.
 
* In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups, both Cruz and Rubio would defeat Trump, which reinforces the significance of five candidates battling it out for second place.
 
* The big mover, oddly enough, is Jeb, who’s not only doubled him support over the last month, but he’s also seen his favorability ratings rise.
 
* If Trump falters, the bulk of his supporters would go to Cruz.
 
The New Hampshire primary, the nation’s first, is five weeks from yesterday.
 
 

New Hampshire and Polling

Latest polling shows surprisingly tight race in first GOP primary

Updated