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Citations for the August 28, 2015 TRMS

08/29/15 01:37AM

Tonight's guests:

  • Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute
  • Jason Mitchell, an actor in the summer blockbuster Straight Outta Compton
  • Madeleine Lecesne, 2014 national student poet
  • Gina Womack, executive director of "Families and Friends of Louisiana's Incarcerated Children," Katrina Truth Initiative

Tonight's links:

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Friday's Mini-Report, 8.28.15

08/28/15 05:30PM

Today's edition of quick hits:
 
* Migrant deaths: "Europe reeled from fresh shocks in its escalating migration crisis Friday, with reports of 150 drownings in the Mediterranean and news that far more migrant corpses had been found crammed in an abandoned refrigeration truck in Austria than first thought. Damage to the vehicle’s side raised the possibility that victims had struggled to escape."
 
* NSA: "A federal appeals court on Friday reversed a trial court decision that would have barred the government from continuing its post-9/11 bulk data collection program implemented by the National Security Agency. The decision means that, for now, the NSA program implemented under Section 215 of the USA PATRIOT Act can continue unimpeded."
 
* Storm preparation: "The governor of Florida declared a state of emergency Friday ahead of Tropical Storm Erika, which has killed at least 12 people as it rakes the Caribbean. Gov. Rick Scott said the storm constitutes a 'severe threat.' Erika is expected to reach Florida late Sunday or early Monday, but it’s not clear how strong the storm will be."
 
* Free speech: "Demonstrators can’t use the Supreme Court’s outdoor plaza as a stage for their messages, a federal appeals court ruled Friday. A federal law prohibiting such demonstrations is justified by the government’s interest in 'preserving decorum' at the Supreme Court and promoting the image of a judiciary 'uninfluenced by public opinion and pressure,' the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit said."
 
* Gun violence: "A college junior died after being shot Thursday night in Savannah State University’s student union building. Christopher Starks, who is from the metro Atlanta area, died at a local hospital, the college said in a statement. The campus had earlier been locked down 'due to a shooting incident.'"
 
* Iraq: "In a further setback to the faltering American and Iraqi campaign to retake Anbar Province from the Islamic State, two Iraqi generals were killed in a suicide attack by the group Thursday morning outside Ramadi, the provincial capital."
 
* NLRB: "A federal labor board voted Thursday to redefine the employee-employer relationship granting new bargaining powers to workers caught up in an economy increasingly reliant on subcontractors, franchisees and temporary staffing agencies."
People show their support during a rally for comprehensive immigration reform on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington D.C., April 10, 2013.

The reliability of Peggy Noonan's friend

08/28/15 04:03PM

There's a famous election anecdote from 1972 in which film critic Pauline Kael expressed astonishment that Richard Nixon had won re-election. She was stunned, the story goes, because "no one I know voted for him."
 
The story is probably apocryphal -- relevant details have changed over the years -- but the enduring qualities of the anecdote deserve appreciation. It's easy, perhaps too easy, for all of us to extrapolate from our personal interactions and draw misleading conclusions based on limited data.
 
The Kael story came to mind today reading Peggy Noonan's latest Wall Street Journal column in which the Republican pundit suggests Donald Trump has burgeoning support with Latino voters. No, that's not a typo.
Something is going on, some tectonic plates are moving in interesting ways. My friend Cesar works the deli counter at my neighborhood grocery store. He is Dominican, an immigrant, early 50s, and listens most mornings to a local Hispanic radio station, La Mega, on 97.9 FM. Their morning show is the popular "El Vacilón de la Mañana," and after the first GOP debate, Cesar told me, they opened the lines to call-ins, asking listeners (mostly Puerto Rican, Dominican, Mexican) for their impressions. More than half called in to say they were for Mr. Trump. Their praise, Cesar told me a few weeks ago, dumbfounded the hosts.
 
I later spoke to one of them, who identified himself as D.J. New Era. He backed Cesar's story. "We were very surprised," at the Trump support, he said. Why? "It's a Latin-based market!"
Noonan seems quite impressed with Cesar's perspective. He apparently claimed Latino callers to the same radio station also sided with Trump -- "He's the man," Cesar said of the Republican -- after this week's confrontation with Univision anchor Jorge Ramos.
 
Cesar went on to tell the GOP pundit that immigrants not only "don't like" undocumented immigrants, they also agree with Trump on "anchor babies."
 
Noonan went on to say that in recent travels, "almost wherever" she went, the columnist "kept meeting immigrants who are or have grown conservative."
 
And 43 years ago, everyone Pauline Kael knew just couldn't wait to vote for McGovern.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump looks toward Jeb Bush, right, as Scott Walker watches during the first Republican presidential debate at the Quicken Loans Arena on Aug. 6, 2015, in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/AP)

Team Jeb adds Trump's sister to the mix

08/28/15 12:35PM

At an event last month, former Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton acknowledged their personal interest in the 2016 race, but sounded optimistic about the kind of campaign Americans could expect.
 
"I know Jeb and I'm confident Secretary Hillary will elevate the discourse," Bush said of his brother.
 
It sounded like a worthy goal, and at the time, the Republican had reason to be optimistic -- the event was in early July, when Jeb Bush was still at or near the top of national GOP polling. A campaign that elevates the discourse is easier when it's winning.
 
It's quite a bit tougher, though, when a campaign hits a rough patch. The Washington Post's Dave Weigel reports today, for example, on Team Jeb tackling a story about, of all things, Donald Trump's sister.
 
It started with a Bloomberg Politics interview in which Mark Halperin asked about the Supreme Court and brought up the fact that Trump's sister is an appeals-court judge. The candidate sang his sister's praises, but said he'd rule her out for a high court nomination. Weigel picks it up from there:
[Trump's] quote ran on Aug. 26. One day later, National Review columnist Ramesh Ponnuru pointed out that Maryanne Trump Barry was reliably pro-choice, and once rejected a lawsuit to stop partial birth abortions for "semantic machinations" about when life began. Just 20 minutes after that article went up, Bush's spokesman and campaign manager tweeted it out, sexing it up a bit to say that Trump actually wanted to put his sister on the bench.
Jeb's campaign manager actually pushed the story twice, "paging all pro-lifers."
 
Can't you just feel the discourse being elevated?
Image: Presidential Candidates Stump At Iowa State Fair

Rubio goes all in on trickle-down economics

08/28/15 11:26AM

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) believes his personal backstory is the perfect antidote to criticisms of his policy agenda. At the first debate for Republican presidential candidates held earlier this month, the Florida senator boasted about what the GOP can expect if he's the nominee: "We will be the party of the bartenders and the maids, of the people that clean our rooms and fix our cars."
 
At face value, the claim seemed odd, if not ridiculous. Rubio has outlined his economic vision, which is based largely on a tax-reform package that lavishes new wealth on the rich. What does this have to do with appealing to bartenders, maids, and mechanics?
 
The answer came in an interview this week with CNBC's John Harwood.
HARWOOD: How do you think people who live paycheck to paycheck will receive that your tax plan eliminates taxes on estates, capital gains, and dividends?
 
RUBIO: First of all, capital gains and dividends is investment. My father had a job as a bartender at a hotel. And the reason why he had a job as a bartender is because someone with money invested in that hotel. That's why he had a salary, and that's why he had tips.
In other words, the far-right senator is genuinely, sincerely committed to trickle-down economics.
 
Rubio seems to believe Republicans can go to bartenders, maids, and mechanics with a pitch: "We'll give big tax breaks to people 'with money.' Eventually, this will mean jobs for you -- top earners will need people to mix their drinks, clean their rooms, and repair their cars."
President Barack Obama walks toward the White House after landing on the South Lawn on Aug. 25 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Andrew Harrer/Pool/Getty)

Obama reminds Congress about looming showdowns

08/28/15 10:48AM

Much of the political world's attention has focused on the presidential campaign trail of late, and for good reason. Congress takes August off; President Obama has been on vacation; and his would-be successors have put on quite a show.
 
But as August nears its end, the White House remains quite cognizant of the challenges facing federal policymakers. Just yesterday, the president published a message on Twitter, explaining, "Amidst global volatility, Congress should protect the momentum of our growing economy (not kill it)." Obama added that the United States "must avoid" a government shutdown and austerity measures.
 
The message didn't come out of the blue. Current funding for the federal government expires at the end of September, and though Republican leaders intended to make progress with talks over their summer break, there's no indication that officials are any closer to a solution than they were in July. On the contrary, as was the case in 2013, some far-right members seem eager for a fight that would result in a shutdown.
 
And then, of course, there's the debt ceiling. On the one hand, we received some good news on this front from the Congressional Budget Office this week. The Washington Post reported:
Congressional leaders may have more time to work out a deal this fall to increase the federal borrowing limit, after new projections from Congress' scorekeeper showed tax revenues have been greater than expected this year. [...]
 
In July, the Treasury Department estimated the government would hit its $18.1 trillion borrowing limit at the end of October. CBO, however, now projects the debt ceiling will not need to be increased until mid-November or early December, while noting there is a level of uncertainty when determining the exact date.
On the other hand, the delayed deadline won't necessarily help. The Huffington Post reported:
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during his "Make America Great Again Rally" at the Grand River Center in Dubuque, Iowa, Aug. 25, 2015. (Photo by Ben Brewer/Reuters)

Will GOP 'loyalty oaths' trip up Trump campaign?

08/28/15 10:09AM

We've seen some reports this week noting that Donald Trump, who's repeatedly refused to rule out a third-party presidential bid, may no longer have a choice. CNN, for example, said the Republican frontrunner "must rule out a third-party bid before October if he wants to compete in South Carolina's Republican primary, a crucial test in the nominating contest."
 
Strictly speaking, that may not be entirely right. South Carolina's GOP does, in fact, require Republican presidential hopefuls to sign something akin to a loyalty oath, but the wording is almost comically weak: "I hereby affirm that I generally believe in and intend to support the nominees and platform of the Republican Party in the November 8, 2016 general election."
 
Could Trump sign the document about his "general beliefs" and then later change his mind? Maybe. Enforcing loyalty oaths is inherently tricky, so it's difficult to say with confidence what would happen if a candidate "intends" to support the party's nominee and then later changes his or her intentions.
 
Still, while the Republican National Committee has very little influence over Trump's chances, Politico reported this week that some state parties are starting to see loyalty oaths as a worthwhile tool aimed at the New York developer.
Amid mounting concerns about Donald Trump's candidacy from the GOP establishment, Republican leaders in at least two states have found a way to make life a lot harder for him.
 
The Virginia and North Carolina parties are in discussions about implementing a new requirement for candidates to qualify for their primary ballots: that they pledge to support the Republican presidential nominee -- and not run as a third-party candidate -- in the general election.
The move probably wouldn't cost Trump support within the party, but that's obviously not the point -- these GOP officials are worried about Trump bolting the party and splitting the right in the general election. They're looking for mechanisms to tie the candidates' hands, forcing them to commit to the party's process.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) addresses a joint meeting of Congress in the House Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., on March 3, 2015. (Photo by Joshua Roberts/Reuters)

Mastering the fine art of losing well

08/28/15 09:34AM

Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) announced his support for the international nuclear agreement with Iran overnight, as did Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.). Both members were considered "on the fence" and their endorsements reinforce broad perceptions that the diplomatic solution is likely to prevail.
 
It's against this backdrop that Slate's Fred Kaplan argues persuasively that some of the deal's high-profile opponents have made a serious strategic blunder.
If current trends hold, [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] and his stateside lobbyists -- mainly AIPAC -- are set to lose this fight. It’s politically risky for Israel’s head of state to go up against the president of his only big ally and benefactor; it’s catastrophic to do so and come away with nothing. Similarly, it’s a huge defeat for AIPAC, whose power derives from an image of invincibility. American politicians and donors might get the idea that the group isn’t so invincible after all, that they can defy its wishes, now and then, without great risk.
 
It would have been better for Netanyahu -- and for Israel -- had he maybe grumbled about the Iran deal but not opposed it outright, let alone so brazenly. He could have pried many more favors from Obama in exchange for his scowl-faced neutrality.
That's undoubtedly true. It's easy to imagine a scenario in which Netanyahu and his team looked ahead, counted heads, and applied some basic game theory. "Look," the prime minister could have told President Obama privately, "I'll obviously never endorse the deal, but in exchange for some new benefits, I'll scale back the opposition campaign." West Wing officials likely would have been amenable to working something out.
 
For that matter, if Netanyahu hadn't adopted such an obstinate, unconstructive posture, he could have also worked with the White House during the negotiations, possibly even having some influence over the shape of the outcome.
 
But the prime minister and his allies chose a different course: first try to kill the talks, then try to kill the deal. For his trouble, Netanyahu is likely to end up with ... nothing.
 
The policy will apparently move forward anyway, while Netanyahu has undercut Israel's relationship with his country's closest ally.
 
There is an art to losing well. The prime minister has conducted a clinic on what not to do.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie announces his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination at Livingston High School on June 30, 2015 in Livingston Twp., N.J. (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty)

'I'm more scared of criminals than I am of guns'

08/28/15 08:44AM

In the wake of this week's shooting in Virginia of two journalists, President Obama mentioned in an interview, "What we know is that the number of people who die from gun-related incidents around this country dwarfs any deaths that happen through terrorism." As a simple matter of arithmetic, Obama's assessment is plainly true.

But Republican presidential hopeful Chris Christie wasn't impressed with the factual observation. "I don't know that anybody in America believes that they feel more threatened by this than they feel a threat by ISIS or by other terrorist groups around the world," the New Jersey governor said on Fox News.
 
It's a curious approach to the debate. For Christie, the president may be right, but the facts don't "feel" true. The governor doesn't know anyone who actually believes the truth -- statistically speaking, reality tells us Americans really are more threatened by gun violence than international terrorism -- and as such, the facts are somehow less important than the perception.
 
But this was the line that really stood out for me.
Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) said Thursday that enforcing existing gun laws should take precedence over new legislation, a day after the deadly shooting of two journalists during a live broadcast.
 
"I'll tell you what I am more scared of, I'm more scared of criminals than I am of guns," the 2016 presidential contender said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
That seems like a line that would score well with focus groups, but it doesn't mean much,
Sen. Ted Cruz

The GOP's not-so-dynamic duo?

08/28/15 08:01AM

At an Iowa event a couple of weeks ago, a 9-year-old boy had a question for Donald Trump. “Mr. Trump?” he asked. "Are you Batman?"
 
“I am Batman,” the Republican answered.
 
Two weeks later, it seems we know he's auditioning for the role of Robin.
Call it a public display of political affection: Sen. Ted Cruz has invited Donald Trump to Washington next month for a rally against the Iran nuclear deal.
 
The two Republican rivals are set to appear at an event organized by the Tea Party Patriots, the Center for Security Politics, and the Zionist Organization of America, according to the Cruz campaign.
The event is tentatively set for September 9th, which should be shortly before Congress votes on legislation that would, if successful, derail the international nuclear agreement with Iran.
 
By any modern standard, it's quite unusual for rival candidates, running for the same party nomination at the same time, to team up like this, but in this case, neither Ted Cruz nor Donald Trump has much to lose. The far-right senator, who made the initial invitation to his ostensible foe, obviously wants to woo Trump supporters in the event the GOP frontrunner stumbles, and an event like this will help solidify Cruz's broader goals.
 
It's also largely the opposite of the strategy Lindsey Graham and Rick Perry tried for a while -- instead of making headlines by getting on Trump's bad side, drawing his ire, Cruz will stay in the spotlight by effectively partnering with the New York developer.
 
Trump, meanwhile, will get to be in front of the cameras for a big D.C. spectacle. Trump likes being in front of the cameras for big spectacles.
 
The big winners, however, may be Democratic supporters of the Iran deal.

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