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Wednesday's Campaign Round-Up, 10.22.14

10/22/14 12:00PM

Today's installment of campaign-related news items that won't necessarily generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:
* In Colorado, a new Monmouth poll shows Rep. Cory Gardner (R) with just a one-point lead over Sen. Mark Udall (D), 47% to 46%. The same poll shows Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) up by seven over former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R), 50% to 43%.
* In Georgia's U.S. Senate race, three consecutive polls have shown Michelle Nunn (D) leading David Perdue (R), including the new SurveyUSA poll that has Nunn up by two, 46% to 44%. The same poll shows Gov. Nathan Deal (R) also up by two over Jason Carter (D), 45% to 43%.
* In Iowa's U.S. Senate race, the new Monmouth poll shows Joni Ernst (R) up by one over Bruce Braley (D), 47% to 46%.
* In North Carolina, a new SurveyUSA poll for WRAL shows Sen. Kay Hagan (D) with a three-point advantage over Thom Tillis (R), 46% to 43%.
* The EB-5 scandal continues to get worse for former Gov. Mike Rounds (R), his party's U.S. Senate candidate in South Dakota.
* In Florida's gubernatorial race, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Gov. Rick Scott (R) and former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) tied at 42% each. Take out the minor party candidates, the poll shows them tied again at 44% each.
* Wisconsin's Sharon Day, the co-chair of the Republican National Committee, said this week, "I don't want to say anything about your Wisconsin voters but, some of them might not be as sharp as a knife."
State Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, prepares to answer questions during a live televised roundtable Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2014 at Time Warner Cable News studios in Raleigh, N.C.

NC's Tillis reconsiders Medicaid expansion

10/22/14 11:29AM

In North Carolina last night, Senate hopeful Thom Tillis (R) had the stage to himself, participating in a sole "debate" after Sen. Kay Hagan (D) chose not to participate, citing a scheduling conflict.
Alone on the stage, however, the Republican made a little news.
Asked if he thought it would be likely that the state legislature would expand Medicaid coverage after refusing to do so previously, Tillis said it might make sense once the state has better control of the financing of the program, which is notorious for its cost overruns.
He said he didn't have an ideological objection to expanding the coverage. But he said when the state auditor told the previous governor that money was being wasted on it, the appropriate response would not have been to make it bigger and more costly.
"I would encourage the state legislature and governor to consider it if they're completely convinced they now have the situation under control," Tillis said.
On its face, that may not seem especially noteworthy, especially since plenty of other state Republican officials nationwide have already embraced Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act.
The twist in this case, however, is considering what Tillis said about this issue before.
People show their support during a rally for comprehensive immigration reform on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington D.C., April 10, 2013.

GOP alienated Latino voters because it could

10/22/14 10:56AM

After the 2012 elections, Republican officials said the party had to face its demographic challenges responsibly. Party leaders said outreach to Latino voters was a necessity, and the Republican National Committee's autopsy report said it was obvious the party would have to support comprehensive immigration reform.
But as the 2014 elections near, Republican politicians have proven that they simply do not care, and the party is arguably more anti-immigration now than any point in modern history. In an unexpected twist, though, the consequences of such fierce, far-right attitudes appear to be non-existent: after two years in which Republicans almost seemed determined to alienate Latinos on purpose, voters appear likely to expand the House Republican majority, and possibly even hand over control of the Senate to the GOP, too.
How is this possible? Nate Cohn crunched the numbers and discovered that Republicans blew off this entire constituency because they could -- even if the GOP loses 100% support of the Latino vote this year, the party would still be positioned to keep control of the House and win the Senate.
Even a situation in which every Latino voter in America chose the Democratic candidate would mainly allow Democrats to fare better in the heavily Hispanic districts where the party already wins. This is already occurring, to a lesser degree. Over the last decade, Democratic gains among young and nonwhite voters have allowed Democrats to win a majority of the House vote without flipping enough districts to earn a majority of seats.
The Upshot analysis found that if not one of the eight million Hispanic voters supported the Republican candidate, Republicans would lose about a dozen House seats.... But given the Republicans' current strength across rural areas and in conservative suburbs, the loss of every Hispanic every voter would not be enough to cost them the 17 seats that would flip House control.... In districts held by House Republicans, Hispanics represent only 6.7 percent of eligible voters and an even smaller share of the electorate.
The point isn't that the GOP will get literally 0% of the Hispanic vote this year, because that's obviously wrong. Rather, the point is, Republicans realize they could get 0% and keep power anyway.
And it's not just the House: in the eight states with the closest U.S. Senate races, "fewer than 5 percent of eligible voters are Latino, according to a new Pew Research report."
With this in mind, the post-2012 recommendations appear to be wrong -- sort of.
U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton speaks during a televised debate at the University of Arkansas in Fayetteville, Ark. on Oct. 14, 2014.

Tom Cotton's mysterious friends

10/22/14 10:30AM

Diligent political observers know there are often interesting tidbits in campaign-finance reports, and one appears to have popped up in Arkansas.
Sen. Tom Cotton's (R) U.S. Senate campaign has paid $322,963 to something called Right Solutions Partners LLC for "fund-raising consulting." That wouldn't ordinarily be especially interesting, since congressional candidates in both parties routinely write big checks to DC-based consultants.
But Jonathan Martin reported that this one is a little different.
[H][ere's the catch: It's not clear that such an entity actually exists. It has no presence on the Internet, it appears that no other campaign is paying it this year, and it has no office at the Washington address listed on the articles of organization filed with the city last year.
However, the address, 1717 K Street Northwest, is where the Washington office of the law firm Arent Fox is located, and a Republican campaign finance lawyer at the firm signed the organizing papers with the city. When I called that lawyer, Craig Engle, he initially said he did not set up Right Solutions Partners. Then he amended that, saying, "I remember being part of the organizing of it."
But he said he forgot who asked him to set up the entity and quickly moved into lawyer-political speak, saying he could not get into for whom he was and was not working. He said he would try to get more information, but, alas, little was proffered. In a subsequent email, Mr. Engle said only that Mr. Cotton's campaign was not a client of Arent Fox, and that he had alerted the campaign to my inquiries.
The far-right congressman and his campaign team wouldn't respond to the New York Times' inquiries, but they did share some additional information with a conservative media outlet.
Rep. Don Young leaves a closed-door Republican strategy session dealing with the the immigration crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border at the Capitol in Washington, D.C. on July 31, 2014.

Don Young rattles students with impertinent remarks

10/22/14 10:01AM

Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) has had quite an interesting year. In fact, just over the last four months, the Republican congressman has been caught manhandling a Capitol Hill aide who bothered him, threatening his Democratic challenger, and even clowning around on the House floor while a Republican colleague delivered remarks honoring a fallen American soldier.
But the Alaska Dispatch News, the state's largest paper, reported the other day on Young's appearance at a Wasilla High School assembly last week, which apparently didn't go well.
Numerous witnesses say Young, 81, acted in a disrespectful and sometimes offensive manner to some students, used profanity and started talking about bull sex when confronted with a question about same-sex marriage.
"We really spend a lot of time at our school talking about how we treat each other," Wasilla Principal Amy Spargo said Tuesday afternoon. "We just don't talk to people that way."
More concerning, school officials say, Young made what they called hurtful and insensitive statements about suicide just days after a Wasilla student took his own life.
Two weeks ago, a student at the school took his own life, and with the school still coming to grips with the tragedy, Don Young reportedly told students that suicide shows a lack of support from friends and family -- which is largely the opposite of what professionals had told them.
"When I heard 'a lack of support from family' and I heard 'a lack of support from friends,' I felt the oxygen go out of the room, but I gasped as well," Wasilla Principal Amy Spargo said. "It just isn't true in these situations. It's just such a hurtful thing to say."
According to the Alaska Dispatch News' account, Young, whose appearance was not recorded, proceeded to use "salty language" with the minors and "told a story that involved flying to Paris to get drunk."
Perhaps talking to students isn't the ideal forum for the longtime congressman?
Donald Trump addresses the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, La., Friday, May 30, 2014.

Donald Trump, Steve King together at last

10/22/14 09:16AM

We've seen press conferences with television personality Donald Trump. And we've seen press conferences with Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa). But our friends at Right Wing Watch reported yesterday on one of those rare moments in which the two joined together for one special media event in the right-wing congressman's home district.
The two heaped praise on one another, with Trump calling King "a special guy" and "a smart person with really the right views on almost everything" and King gushing that "time after time, when the hand of Donald Trump reached out and touched something, it turned into something good for America."
And they tried to outdo each other with criticism of President Obama, as Trump evaded questions about his own plans to run for president while blaming Obama for such offenses as turning major U.S. airports into "third-world airports."
Hunter joked, "If Donald Trump and Rep. Steve King had not planned a press conference together, we probably would have had to launch a Kickstarter campaign supporting the idea."
King took full advantage of the opportunity: "In video captured by the Iowa Republican, King went on a long tirade claiming that America is becoming “a third-world country” because of “the things that are coming at us from across the border,” including illegal drugs, Central American children of “prime gang recruitment age,” ISIS, a childhood respiratory illness that has spread in recent weeks, and the Ebola virus. The ISIS and respiratory disease claims are based on unsubstantiated reports in the right-wing media, while there is absolutely no link between border enforcement and Ebola or the Oklahoma beheading incident."
The congressman then said President Obama wants "to treat people in Africa as if they were American citizens," before adding that the president "has pitted people against each other."
U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, right, shakes hands with Republican challenger Scott Brown on Oct. 21, 2014 in Concord, N.H.

Scott Brown tries to fake his way through a debate

10/22/14 08:43AM

About 20 years ago, there was a great episode of "Cheers," featuring a city councilman who goes to the bar to ask voters for support. "Kevin Fogarty, City Council. I hope I have your vote on election day," he says. Frasier Crane asks, "And why exactly should I vote for you, Mr. Fogarty?"
The councilman replies, "Well, because I'm a hard worker, and I take a stand." Crane adds, "On what, exactly?" "The issues of the day," Fogarty replies. "Which are?" Crane asks. "The things that concern you and your family -- the most," the councilman concludes.
The folks in the bar thought this was a great answer, failing to notice that the candidate clearly had nothing of substance to say, and was simply faking his way past the questions, hoping no one would notice.
The "Cheers" episode came to mind last night watching Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) debate former Sen. Scott Brown (R) in New Hampshire. At one point, for example. moderator Chuck Todd asked about climate change -- Brown believes some of the crisis is "natural" -- and pressed the candidates on how best to reduce carbon emissions.
"I'm not going to talk about whether we're going to do something in the future," Brown replied, apparently confused about the purpose of a political campaign.
When Todd asked the Republican to explain the metrics he'd use to determine whether the U.S./Mexico border is secure, Brown replied, "You know it's secure when people don't come across it."
Remember, border security is one of the issues Brown claims to care the most about.
All of which led the challenger to make a striking claim.
Scott Brown's strategy in his New Hampshire Senate campaign has focused on claims that securing the border would prevent Islamic State militants from crossing into the United States. But when asked on Tuesday for evidence, Brown denied he ever made such statements.
"With respect, I did not say that -- what I have said is ISIS is real," Brown, a Republican, said during the first televised debate of the New Hampshire Senate race.... "Is there a possibility?" he added. "It's been raised that there are opportunities for people to come through that border. What are their intentions, I'm not sure, but they have made it very clear that they want to plant a flag in the White House."
He added, "I'm not fear mongering."
Democratic candidate Charlie Crist, left, and Republican Gov. Rick Scott shake hands before their live television debate on Oct. 21, 2014 in Jacksonville, Fla.

Florida's Scott on minimum wage: 'How would I know?'

10/22/14 08:00AM

For the second time in five days, Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) faced off in a televised debate against former Gov. Charlie Crist (D), and this time, the incumbent didn't hide backstage over the use of an electric fan. Then again, given how the debate went, maybe he should have.
The two covered quite a bit of ground over the course of the hour, but one of the more memorable exchanges came on the issue of the minimum wage. Moderator Jake Tapper raised a question of increasing importance in contemporary Republican politics: whether the minimum wage should exist.
TAPPER: Governor Scott, you have said that you oppose raising the minimum wage because you think it would be a job killer. Clarify something for Florida voters, do you support the principle of a minimum wage? Do you support the concept of a minimum wage?
SCOTT: Sure.
TAPPER: What should it be?
SCOTT: How would I know? I mean, the private sector decides wages.
It's amazing to see this issue trip up so many Republican governors. Just over the last week or so, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) stumbled, saying about the minimum wage, "I don't think it serves a purpose." Yesterday, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) told powerful corporate allies that he's annoyed by the debate itself. "I gotta tell you the truth: I'm tired of hearing about the minimum wage," Christie said. "I really am."
But in Florida, Rick Scott seems more confused than his GOP brethren. Asked if he supports the minimum wage on a conceptual level, the governor said, "Sure." But asked what that wage should be, Scott says that's up to the private sector -- in the process making the case against minimum wage on a conceptual level.
Given how popular a minimum-wage increase is, and the number of Floridians struggling in low-paying jobs, it's remarkable the governor and his aides didn't have a better response prepared for this perfectly sensible question.

Ebola patient cleared and other headlines

10/22/14 08:00AM

NBC News freelancer declared free of Ebola. (NBC News)

Investigators question Secret Service assignment that sent a "Prowler" unit to handle a private dispute. (AP)

Official autopsy shows Michael Brown had close-range wound to his hand. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)

White House Chief of Staff negotiating redaction of CIA torture report. (Huffington Post)

Koch-allied group urges young voters to support weed candidate. (National Journal)

Did Tom Cotton pay more than $300,000 to a group that does not exist? (NY Times)

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'Just show up' becomes key to 2014 debates

'Just show up' becomes key to 2014 debates

10/21/14 11:26PM

Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC's Meet the Press, talks with Rachel Maddow about the odd trend in 2014 debates of candidates threatening not to show up, or, in the case of Kay Hagan in North Carolina, literally giving the platform to her opponent alone. watch

'America's newspaper editor,' Todd on Bradlee

'America's newspaper editor,' Todd on Bradlee

10/21/14 11:25PM

Chuck Todd, moderator of NBC's Meet the Press, reflects on the legacy of Ben Bradlee, former editor of The Washington Post who died tonight, and points out his importance as a role model to editors and producers in the news media today. watch