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Former Florida Governor and probable 2016 Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush speaks at the First in the Nation Republican Leadership Conference in Nashua, N.H. on April 17, 2015. (Photo by Brian Snyder/Reuters)

Just how big will the 2016 field get?

04/27/15 08:40AM

ABC's George Stephanopoulos yesterday asked former House Speaker Newt Gingrich yesterday about his party's 2016 presidential field and just how big it might get. The Georgia Republican threw out a pretty big number.
STEPHANOPOULOS:  Nine potential Republican candidates at the Faith and Freedom Coalition forum in Iowa last night.  Nine of who knows how many eventual candidates in this race. Let's talk about that now again with our roundtable.  And Mr. Speaker, we were just talking just before we came on air, this field could continue to grow and grow and grow.
 
GINGRICH:  This is now maybe the most open field in Republican history.  I used to say the most open since 1940, but they've now blown past that. I think we may have 25 candidates.
Stephanopoulos, slightly amazed, responded simply, "25 candidates."
 
This wasn't supposed to happen. About a month ago, former Gov. Jeb Bush's (R) fundraising operation -- widely characterized as a "shock and awe" campaign -- was seen as so imposing that it was likely to help winnow the Republican field before it even took shape. "Don't bother running," Team Bush signaled to would-be candidates. "We've already cornered the market on campaign finances."
 
And for a brief while, it may have even had some effect -- prominent Republicans like Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Bob Corker, Rob Portman, and John Thune considered national campaigns, but ultimately decided against it.
 
In recent weeks, however, we've learned that the 2016 field is likely to swell to unprecedented numbers. Next week, over the course of about 24 hours, three more GOP candidates -- Carly Fiorina, Ben Carson, and Mike Huckabee -- are expected to launch their presidential bids. Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) was coy for a while, but he's starting to sound more and more like someone preparing a national campaign. Even Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R), who was expected to stand aside in 2016, is suddenly moving closer to the 2016 race.
 
The idea that the Republican field could soon hold a football scrimmage, with 11 candidates on offense and 11 candidates on defense, no longer seems ridiculous.
Republican presidential hopeful U.S. Sen.Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks at the Republican Leadership Summit on April 18, 2015, in Nashua, N.H.

On marriage debate, GOP candidates forget what year it is

04/27/15 08:00AM

The presidential campaign is still taking shape, but we've already seen candidates peppered with some unexpected litmus-test questions on issues like evolutionary biology and vaccinations. But last week's inquiry -- "Would you attend a same-sex wedding?" -- was perhaps the most unexpected yet.
 
The responses told us a little something about the White House hopefuls' tone, but the question itself was telling -- the debate over marriage equality has advanced so far that Republicans are getting pressed, not on constitutional amendments, but on wedding invitations.
 
Jon Stewart had a good segment on this the other day, noting, "The national shift makes it a lot less acceptable now for Republican candidates to say the kinds of things that they were saying in the last campaign cycle.... Republicans can no longer dismiss gay marriage out of hand. They must engage the question."
 
But as encouraging as that shift is, what's especially striking is the degree to which the 2016 GOP field hasn't progressed -- candidates appear stuck in the same old debate, repeating stale, discredited arguments while the nation passes them by. Politico reported on an Iowa event on Saturday featuring nine Republican presidential hopefuls, each trying to curry favor with the 1,000 evangelicals who gathered at the Point of Grace Church in Waukee.
[A] procession of presidential candidates expressed support for a constitutional amendment that would allow states to re-ban gay marriage if the Supreme Court recognizes a right to such unions. [...]
 
The nuanced answers from many Republican candidates in recent months took a backburner Saturday night, as several of the candidates tried to outdo one another on who could speak out most strongly against a right to gay marriage.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), echoing Rick Santorum's 2011 rhetoric nearly word for word, told the right-wing attendees, "The institution of marriage as between one man and one woman existed even before our laws existed." Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), repeating Rick Scott's 2011 talking points, said an anti-gay constitutional amendment would be "reasonable."
 
Perhaps my favorite moment came when Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) condemned Democrats' "devotion to mandatory gay marriage in all 50 states."
 
I'm certainly not in a position to speak for Democrats, but I'm pretty sure they want marriage to be voluntary, not mandatory.

Help to Nepal and other headlines

04/27/15 07:35AM

U.S. military sending aid to quake-ravaged Nepal. (AP)

Video shows moment of Everest avalanche. (BBC)

Declassified report shows doubts about value of NSA's warrantless spying. (New York Times)

Jeb Bush claims a record fund-raising total. (New York Times)

George W. Bush: I'll stay out of Jeb's way. (Politico)

MI Gov. Rick Snyder could be the next Republican to enter 2016 race. (The Guardian)

After protests, calm sought for Freddie Gray's burial. (Baltimore Sun)

Pres. Obama to send aide to Freddie Gray's funeral. (AP)

Supporters of Senate Iran bill are swatting away amendments. (AP)

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In this Tuesday, May 19, 2009 photo released by NASA, the Hubble Space Telescope is seen from the Space Shuttle Atlantis.

Week in Geek: Hubble gotchu edition

04/26/15 02:20PM

On April 24, 1990, just over 25 years ago, Space Shuttle Discovery launched from Kennedy Space Center as STS-31 with the Hubble Space Telescope aboard. Current NASA administrator Charles Bolden was the pilot, accompanied by Loren Shriver, Bruce McCandless, Kathryn D. Sullivan and Steven Hawley.

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Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, from left, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum gather on stage after speak at the Homeschool Iowa's Capitol Day, Thursday, April 9, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa.

This Week in God, 4.25.15

04/25/15 08:59AM

First up from the God Machine this week is an aggressive push from likely Republican presidential candidates to characterize social conservatives as a "victims" of a secular American government.
 
If this seems like a cyclical problem, it's not your imagination. Four years ago, Newt Gingrich delivered one of my favorite quotes of all time, warning that if conservatives "do not decisively win the struggle over the nature of America," his grandchildren might one day live "in a secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists." The contradiction was apparently lost on him.
 
Four years later, it's Rick Santorum reading from a similar script. Right Wing Watch reported this week:
Santorum told [the Family Research Council's Tony Perkins] that, for the first time ever in U.S. history, religious liberty is under assault from a new secular theocratic system:
 
"For the first time in the history of our country, the government is attacking people, prosecuting people, calling for people to be rehabilitated.... We have the state establishing a new religion, a secular state religion.... We have now the secular church that is being imposed on this country and anybody that defects is subject to persecution and prosecution."
For the record, I haven't seen any evidence of any government agency "calling for people to be rehabilitated." The notion of "secular churches" and a "secular religion" also seem misplaced, if not oxymoronic.
 
Around the same time, a likely Santorum rival for the Republican nomination, Mike Huckabee, also told the Family Research Council that the United States is moving toward "criminalization of Christianity" -- which by any sensible standard, is completely bonkers.
 
This coincided with Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) arguing in a New York Times op-ed that Christians face "discrimination" unless they're allowed to discriminate.
 
We're dealing with the confluence of a few related storylines: the Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments on marriage equality on Tuesday; fights over right-to-discriminate laws have dominated national headlines; and the presidential race is beginning in earnest, with leading candidates eagerly embracing the sense of victimization that's common in social conservatism, pandering to the party's religious right base.
 
The result, evidently, is some over-the-top nonsense about secular churches and making Christianity illegal.
 
Also from the God Machine this week:

Citations for the April 24, 2015 TRMS

04/25/15 12:32AM

Tonight's guests:

  • Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist for the Washington Post
  • Kenji Yoshino, NYU constitutional law professor
  • Michael Beschloss, NBC News presidental historian

Tonight's links:

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Friday's Mini-Report, 4.24.15

04/24/15 05:30PM

Today's edition of quick hits:
 
* Drones: "President Obama pledged Friday that his administration would seek to learn from the mistakes that led to the inadvertent killing by the Central Intelligence Agency of two Western hostages, including an American, in a drone strike against al Qaida earlier this year."
 
* A rhetorical escalation on trade: "The already bitter fight between the White House and the progressive base over trade policy has turned ugly after President Obama said his critics on the left 'don't know what they're talking about' and compared their arguments to conspiracy theories about 'death panels.'"
 
* Sometimes, paying hostage takers doesn't work: "The captors of U.S. aid worker Warren Weinstein received $250,000 in 2012 on what turned out to be a false promise that he would be freed, according to a Pakistani intermediary who negotiated directly with al Qaeda for his release."
 
* One hundred years later: "The century-old wounds over the mass slaughter of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire were on full display Friday as Europe took another step toward describing the killings as a genocide and Turkey offered groundbreaking outreach even as it rejected any links to the "sin" of ethnic purges."
 
* I think they're bluffing: "House lawmakers are threatening to slash Defense Department funding by about $500 million next year if Pentagon officials don't hand over documents related to their probe into a controversial prisoner swap that freed five Taliban detainees in exchange for a captive U.S. soldier."
 
* The happiest man in Washington today: "Attorney General Eric Holder bid a final farewell to what he predicts will be recognized in the next half-century as a new 'Golden Age' at the Department of Justice, leaving behind a historic six-year tenure as the first African-American man to serve as the nation's top attorney."
 
* All kinds of odd folks filed anti-gay briefs with the Supreme Court in advance of next week's arguments on marriage equality. Irin Carmon, to her enormous credit, read them all and reported on her findings.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks during a news conference at the United Nations in New York, March 10, 2015. (Photo by Lucas Jackson/Reuters)

'It looks like bribery'? Actually, it doesn't

04/24/15 03:49PM

Mitt Romney has invested an enormous amount of time, energy, and resources into trolling President Obama for the last several years, to the point that the two-time failed presidential candidate has become one of his party's highest-profile attack dogs. But as the next presidential election takes shape, the former governor is picking up a new hobby: trolling Hillary Clinton.
 
Commenting yesterday on the New York Times article on the Clinton Foundation's international donors, Romney said, "I was stunned by it. I mean, it looks like bribery." The Republican added there is "every appearance" that the former Secretary of State "was bribed."
 
That's obviously a very serious allegation. And like so many of Mitt Romney's other allegations, it also appears to be completely untrue. (Given Romney's previous praise of the Clinton Foundation's foreign partnerships, it's also a little ironic.)
 
By now, you've probably heard the gist of the New York Times story.
At the heart of the tale are several men, leaders of the Canadian mining industry, who have been major donors to the charitable endeavors of former President Bill Clinton and his family. Members of that group built, financed and eventually sold off to the Russians a company that would become known as Uranium One.
It's a little convoluted, but the piece, based in part on conservative writer Peter Schweizer's new book, tries to connect several dots to create an unflattering picture: the State Department approved a deal during Clinton's tenure allowing a Canadian mining company to sell its uranium business to Russia. That same company had donated heavily to the Clinton Foundation. Complicating matters, after Russia announced plans to buy the uranium business, Bill Clinton was paid handsomely to deliver a speech at a Russian investment bank.
 
The allegation, then, is that the donations influenced the process -- the Clinton Foundation received money from the company, the Clinton-run State Department approved a deal that benefited the company and its buyers. It's why Romney's suddenly comfortable throwing around words like "bribery."
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell speaks with reporters following a closed-door policy meeting at the Capitol in Washington on Dec. 2, 2014. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)

GOP leaders scramble on healthcare, fearful of Supreme Court win

04/24/15 12:56PM

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is one of the more vulnerable Republican incumbents in the Senate next year, and some recent polling shows him trailing former Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), whom he beat in 2010. One of the questions Johnson would prefer not to hear from hundreds of thousands of his constituents for the next year and a half is, "Why did you take my family's health security away?"
 
The Supreme Court probably won't rule on King v. Burwell until June, and Republican opponents of the Affordable Care Act, at least on the surface, desperately hope they prevail in order to gut much of the nation's health care system. But the hopes come with fear -- if GOP policymakers successfully take coverage from millions, some of those folks might be a little annoyed come Election Day 2016.
 
It's not complicated: a big win for Republicans at the high court is a big loss for millions of consumers who would quickly lose ACA subsidies they need to afford insurance. This week, however, Ron Johnson and a whole bunch of his friends unveiled an interesting bill.
The legislation, offered by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), one of the most politically vulnerable Senate incumbents in 2016, would maintain the federal HealthCare.gov tax credits at stake in King v. Burwell through the end of August 2017.
 
The bill was unveiled this week with 29 other cosponsors, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and his four top deputies, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), John Thune (R-SD), John Barrasso (R-WY) and Roy Blunt (R-MO). Another cosponsor is Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the chairman of the conference's electoral arm.
Though the details are a little more complicated than they might appear at first blush, the idea is to effectively lock in the status quo for a couple of years. If Republicans on the Supreme Court agree to take away subsidies for millions, Republicans in Congress now have a message for the affected consumers: everything will stay as-is until August 2017.
 
As Kaili Joy Gray joked, Senate Republicans have effectively introduced a bill to "protect Obamacare from Senate Republicans."
 
But whether this is a credible resolution to a self-imposed crisis is something else entirely.

Friday's Campaign Round-Up, 4.24.15

04/24/15 12:00PM

Today's installment of campaign-related news items that won't necessarily generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:
 
* For the second time this week, Marco Rubio leads the Republicans' presidential field in a national poll. The new Fox News survey shows the Florida senator in front with 13%, followed by Scott Walker at 12% and Rand Paul at 10%. Jeb Bush is close behind at 9%.
 
* The same poll found Hillary Clinton with modest leads over each of the leading GOP contenders. Among Democrats, there's suddenly little appetite for a competitive primary: 71% of Dems say they're "satisfied with the field of Democratic candidates."
 
* Before Republican presidential hopefuls compete for voters' support, they must first compete for billionaires' support. Rubio has reportedly taken the lead in winning over casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.
 
* On a related note, Rubio participated in a conference call yesterday with the Koch brothers' AFP, which is trying to rally opposition to the Export-Import Bank.
 
* Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) has not yet launched a presidential campaign, but he's already making jabs at potential rivals, saying yesterday that Jeb Bush will raise a lot of money, but "we'll see if he can buy a lot of love."
 
* Mike Huckabee is also making an issue of Jeb's fundraising. "Will I have the same amount that somebody like Bush would have? Probably not. I do not have the family rolodex," the former Arkansas governor said this week.

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Launched in 2008, “The Rachel Maddow Show” follows the machinations of policy making in America, from local political activism to international diplomacy. Rachel Maddow looks past the distractions of political theater and stunts and focuses on the legislative proposals and policies that shape American life - as well as the people making and influencing those policies and their ultimate outcome, intended or otherwise.

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