Today on the show, we talked about a new report from the Center for American Progress showing that the proportion of minorities is growing in swing states, and is expected to average a 2% increase from 2008. Meanwhile, the share of white working class voters is expected to shrink by 3% from 2008.
After looking at the 2008 results, this could bode well for President Obama, who won 80% of minorities against Senator John McCain. The President struggled with white working class voters, with just 40% supporting him, so their decreasing population may help him. But, of course, these voting blocs could shift their allegiance, and an anemic economic climate come November could draw them toward Mitt Romney. Also, as Alex noted today, a Brookings Institute report last month showed while minority populations are growing, that doesn’t always translate to votes. The report found America’s “fastest growing minorities are either too young to vote or are less likely to be citizens, even when here legally.”
A factor working in the President’s favor is the number of swing states with unemployment rates below the national average. In seven states that could have tight races this November, the jobless rate is below 8.2%. Ohio, for instance, has seen its unemployment rate drop for nine straight months and now stands at 7.4%. According to the New York Times, there are nine states where the campaigns are focusing their ads – it certainly helps the President that six of those states have a better employment picture than the national average.
For more on the shifting demographics and how it will impact the outcome in November, check out the full segment from today’s show: