Team Bush is saturating the airwaves in the early states … Jeb: “I’m an introvert. Introverts have a huge advantage over extroverts”… It’s a busy day in Iowa … New Q-polls: Trump and Hillary lead in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania – but they’re also the most unpopular candidates in the three states… Draft Biden group releases 90-second TV ad … Who is showing up for work? And who isn’t … McCarthy, Chaffetz, and Webster make their pitches… And House to vote on creating a select committee to investigate
Team Bush is saturating the airwaves in the early states: By now, you probably know that Jeb Bush and the Super PAC supporting him are spending the most on TV ads in the presidential contest. But you might not know the extent to which Team Jeb is actually saturating the airwaves in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Here is the ad-spending data, via NBC ad-tracking partner SMG Delta, for just THIS WEEK alone (Oct. 4-10):
- Right to Rise (the pro-Jeb Super PAC): $1.9 million in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina
- Conservative Solutions Project (the pro-Rubio 501c4): $700,000 in IA, NH, SC
- Hillary Clinton: $490,00 in IA, NH
- America Leads (the pro-Christie Super PAC): $423,000 in NH
- New Day for America (the pro-Kasich Super PAC): $332,000 in NH
- Generation Forward PAC (the pro-O’Malley Super PAC): $155,000 in IA
- Club for Growth (airing anti-Trump ads): $138,000 in Iowa
- Believe Again (pro-Jindal Super PAC): $125,000
- Larry Lessig: $33,000 in Iowa
Nearly $2 million is A LOT of money to be spending in a single week on TV ads, especially when you consider how far away we are from the first February contests. (Come February, $2 million per week is probably what you’ll see the best-financed campaigns spend in a single state the size of New Hampshire or Iowa.) Yesterday, we wrote how Hillary Clinton appears to be stepping on the gas in terms of campaign activity. Well, Team Jeb (via his Super PAC) is clearly stepping on the gas when it comes to TV ads. Our usual caveat: Because outside groups have to usually pay higher rates for TV ads than actual campaigns, Right to Rise’s $1.9 million doesn’t go as far as the same amount of money would if the campaign itself were spending it. For instance, it’s possible that the Clinton campaign’s $490,000 right now puts it close (as far as raw number of spots airing) to what Team Bush is doing.
The top overall spenders on TV ads so far:
- Team Bush: $7.3 million ($6.9 million from Right to Rise, $440,000 from campaign)
- Team Kasich: $5.4 million (all in New Hampshire)
- Team Rubio: $4.7 million (all from the Conservative Solutions Project 501c4)
- Team Clinton: $4.6 million (all from campaign)
- Team Christie: $3.3 million (all in New Hampshire – $2.9 million from Super PAC, $400,000 from campaign)
- Team Jindal: $2.3 million (all in Iowa)
Jeb: “I’m an introvert. Introverts have a huge advantage over extroverts”: Speaking of Jeb, don’t miss this line from him in his interview with our friends from The Skimm: Asked what his greatest strength is, Bush replied, “Dogged determination. I’m an introvert. Introverts have a huge advantage over extroverts. We can create a mission and we can act on it.” Think he’s talking about himself vs. Trump? Of course, it’s not every day when a politician admits to being an introvert.
It’s a busy day in Iowa: So many ’16 candidates are in the Hawkeye State. Donald Trump delivers a speech in Waterloo at 1:00 pm ET. Hillary Clinton hits Mt. Vernon (11:00 am ET) and Council Bluffs (3:30 pm ET). Jeb Bush has a trio of stops in Muscatine (10:00 am ET), Oskaloosa (1:30 pm ET), and West Des Moines (7:00 pm ET). And Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum also campaign in Iowa. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, and Lindsey Graham are all in New Hampshire.
New Q-polls: Trump and Hillary lead in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania – but they’re also the most unpopular candidates in the three states: Quinnipiac is out with its most recent polls of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and they show Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are leading their respective GOP and Dem fields. Not a surprise. But it’s also striking that while Trump and Clinton lead the horseraces, they also are the most unpopular figures among the general electorate. At what point does that become a problem for primary voters?
Draft Biden group releases 90-second TV ad: Like other polls have shown, Quinnipiac has Joe Biden outperforming Hillary Clinton in general election matchups and with a higher fav/unfav rating. (Then again, that shouldn’t be surprising given that he’s not a candidate.) Well, as NBC’s Peter Alexander first reported on “Today,” the Draft Biden Super PAC is up with a six-figure TV ad urging Biden to run. After hearing words from Biden talking about overcoming from tragedy and adversity, the ad ends with the words: “Joe, run.”
Who is showing up for work? And who isn’t: On Tuesday, NBC’s Frank Thorp crunched the numbers to see which U.S. senators running for president have missed the biggest share of Senate votes since officially launching their presidential bids. The percentages:
- Lindsey Graham: 48%
- Marco Rubio: 42%
- Ted Cruz: 29%
- Bernie Sanders: 4%
- Rand Paul: 3%
A caveat to these numbers: While Graham’s percentage is the highest, Rubio has actually missed more total votes since Graham’s later entry into the race on (June 1).
McCarthy, Chaffetz, and Webster make their pitches: “The three candidates running to be the next Speaker of the House made their pitch to conservatives Tuesday night as the Republican conference tries to rally around a unifying candidate to lead the body going forward,” NBC’s Alex Moe reports. “During a closed-door meeting just steps from the Capitol, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Chairman Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) and Rep. Daniel Webster (R-FL), each took time laying out their vision for the party moving forward and answering questions from more than 50 members of the House Tea Party Caucus, Freedom Caucus, Liberty Caucus and Conservative Opportunity Group. ‘It was a good discussion among colleagues that was indicative of the way things should be done,’ Rep. Mark Meadows (R- NC), told reporters as he left the meeting, characterizing it as a ‘deliberative mood’ inside.”
House to vote on creating a select committee to investigate Planned Parenthood: NBC’s Moe also reports that this afternoon, the House of Representatives “will vote to create the select committee to investigate Planned Parenthood following the release of those controversial tapes this summer. Leadership had vowed to create this special committee during the funding fight last month trying to help alleviate concerns from conservatives as a ‘clean CR’ – aka one that did not strip the organization of federal funds – made its way through Congress. The privilege resolution to create the committee is expected to pass the House with Republican support and will be chaired by Rep Marsha Blackburn.” Our question: Is another select committee here (after Benghazi) enough to avoid a showdown over Planned Parenthood to keep the government open come December?
OFF TO THE RACES: Team Biden pushes back on Politico report
A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania shows that Ben Carson and Joe Biden are the strongest general election candidates in the three swing states. But they also show Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leading the primary horseraces in those three states.
BIDEN: ICYMI, his team is pushing back on that POLITICO report suggesting that he leaked the story of his son’s deathbed wishes to Maureen Dowd.
Draft Biden is up with its first ad.
BUSH: He’s the latest candidate to participate in a guest Skimm.
CLINTON: From McClatchy: “Hillary Clinton hired a Connecticut company to back up her emails on a “cloud” storage system, and her lawyers have agreed to turn whatever it contains over to the FBI, a personal familiar with the situation said Tuesday.”
She’ll make a decision soon on the newly finalized Trans Pacific Partnership.
The New York Times, on how aggressively she’s exploiting Kevin McCarthy’s comments on the Benghazi panel.
Via the AP: “As Clinton looks for ways to distinguish her ideas from those of her former boss, the relationship between the man in the White House and the woman who hopes to replace him has grown increasingly complicated.”
Notes Alex Seitz-Wald: “Hillary Clinton’s campaign is flexing its political and organizational muscle with the announcement Tuesday of leadership councils in Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia that feature virtually every major Democratic elected official in the three key states.”
CRUZ: He’s searching for votes all around the country, with an eye on the current RNC Rule 40.
FIORINA: The Wall Street Journal does a deep dive into Fiorina’s HP career. “Ms. Fiorina indeed saved jobs by keeping H-P afloat, but had to trim the company’s workforce by about 30,000. Dell, about a third the size of H-P in 2005, cut roughly 1,700 jobs during the same period, according to people familiar with the matter. H-P’s workforce grew from 84,400 to 150,000 during her tenure, taking into account Compaq and other acquisitions.”
NBC’s Shaquille Brewster: “Wrapping up her three day trip through the first-in-the-nation primary state, Carly Fiorina was feeling the momentum that has propelled her to second place here in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, declaring at her final stop “I’m a frontrunner.”… But Fiorina’s rise in the polls has been matched by the increased pressure and scrutiny of a frontrunner – as her business record, previous campaign, and comments on the trail have come under fire from rivals and news organizations”.
KASICH: He offered to buy Bibles for critics of his Medicaid expansion.
RUBIO: NBC’s Frank Thorp did the math on Rubio’s missed Senate votes.
TRUMP: The Washington Post reports on his attempts to stage a second act, including ads from a Florida media company that’s new to politics and a renewed focus on women’s health issues.
On Twitter, he defended Ben Carson’s comments about tackling an active shooter. “Ben Carson was speaking in general terms as to what he would do if confronted with a gunman, and was not criticizing the victims. Not fair!”
CONGRESS: Chaffetz = Cinnabon?
NBC’s Alex Moe has all the latest on the candidates for House Speaker and their efforts to woo conservatives.
The New York Times, on Jason Chaffetz: “Representative Jason Chaffetz of Utah admits he is not the best candidate to become speaker of the House. He fully expects to lose when his Republican colleagues pick their nominee on Thursday. But opportunity for Mr. Chaffetz is like the scent of an airport Cinnabon, and he has a habit of racing to its smell.”
OBAMA AGENDA: Obama makes his pitch for TPP
“The American commander in Afghanistan now believes that United States troops probably did not follow their own rules in calling in the airstrike that decimated a Doctors Without Borders hospital when no American and Afghan troops were in extreme danger, according to officials with direct knowledge of the general’s thinking,” reports the New York Times.
Reuters reports on Obama’s pitch to win support for the Pacific trade pact.
Carrie Dann contributed reporting to this article.