The 2016 U.S. presidential race could be damaging for the stock market, if history is any guide.
Since 1948, previous open election years historically underperformed re-election years given the uncertainty over who will become the leader of the free world, Strategas head of policy research, Daniel Clifton, wrote in a note to clients last week.
In the past six decades, the average yearly return during open election years stood at around 1 percent compared with a 10 percent increase for re-election years, according to research from Strategas.
“The last two open presidential election years also marked the end of the economic cycle. And both 2000 and 2008 were negative for equities,” Clifton adds.
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