Republicans loved knocking Nate Silver in the run up to the 2012 election. But they might want to tout his prediction this time around.
That’s because the political stat guru predicted on his FiveThirtyEight.com on Sunday that the GOP has about a 60% chance of winning the six Senate seats needed in order to take the majority in the upper chamber of Congress later this year.
Silver says the GOP clearly has an advantage in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, and Arkansas. He notes there are four Democratic-held seats that are tossups, including in Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska, and Michigan.
Silver says “the path of least resistance to a Senate majority” is winning the four states that are leaning Republican and then two of the tossups. He also says the GOP could potentially pick up seats in Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire.
Back in July, Silver said the Senate control could go to either party. So what happened?
“The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42-or-43% from an average of about 45% before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions,” he wrote.
In 2012, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and Washington D.C. in the presidential election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. He also accurately pegged 31 of the 33 Senate races.