Battle for the Senate: 3 expert predictions

Updated
Experts gave U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) good odds at winning the Wisconsin race for Senate against former Governor, Tommy Thompson.
Experts gave U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) good odds at winning the Wisconsin race for Senate against former Governor, Tommy Thompson.
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In just a few hours we’ll know if the Democrats will keep control of the Senate.

But for those of you who can’t wait, below are some predictions from some of the foremost experts in the field.

The Dems now have a 53-47 majority in the Senate (including the votes of two independents who usually caucus with the left). To flip control, the right needs to turn only four seats to become the majority—or three if Mitt Romney wins the presidency.

So could it happen? And if the Dems retain their control, just how much of an edge will they have?

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: According to political analyst Larry Sabato’s site, there will no changes in the Senate and the Dems will keep their 53-47 make up. For the tossup races, Sabato predicts that Rep. Jeff Flake (R) will win in Arizona against former Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) and Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) may win against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) in Wisconsin. But even then, “we’re left with a Senate that looks exactly the way it does now.”

Nate Silver: The New York Times’ polling guru gives the Democrats a 95.3% chance of keeping their majority, while the Republicans only have a 4.7% chance of gaining it. He predicts the Dems will have 52.5 seats compared to 47.5 seats for the Republicans. That’s essentially the status quo.

The Rothenberg Political Report: According to the non-partisan organization, Republicans will not be able to gain the three seats they need. Of the 23 Democratic seats up for grabs, 11 were deemed “safe,” three are “pure tossups” three “lean Democrat” four are “Democrat favored” one is a “toss-up/tilt Republican,” and only one is “Republican favored” Of the 10 Republican seats in play, two were deemed “tossup/tilt Democrat,” one is “Democrat favored,” two are “toss-ups/tilt Republican,” and five are currently “safe.”

CLICK HERE FOR A BREAKDOWN OF THE 11 MOST DECISIVE SENATE RACES

Battle for the Senate: 3 expert predictions

Updated