What are the possibilities for Afghanistan after the US leaves?

Updated

The New Yorker’s Dexter Filkins joined us this morning to discuss his latest piece on what will happen in Afghanistan when the bulk of U.S. troops leave the country. In his piece, Filkins writes:

Afghan and American officials believe that some precipitating event could prompt the country’s ethnic minorities to fall back into their enclaves in northern Afghanistan, taking large chunks of the Army and police forces with them. Another concern is that Jamiat officers within the Afghan Army could indeed try to mount a coup against Karzai or a successor. The most likely trigger for a coup, these officials say, would be a peace deal with the Taliban that would bring them into the government or even into the Army itself. Tajiks and other ethnic minorities would find this intolerable. Another scenario would most likely unfold after 2014: a series of dramatic military advances by the Taliban after the American pullout.

U.S. and NATO forces are expected to withdraw from the region in 2014.

The Washington Post also points out that Afghanistan stands to gain $16 billion in funding over the next four years:

Donor nations meeting here Sunday at a conference on aid to Afghanistan pledged $16 billion over the next four years for civilian projects, from roads to schools to strengthening the rule of law, in exchange for pledges from the Afghan government to combat corruption.

What are the possibilities for Afghanistan after the US leaves?

Updated