CHRIS MATTHEWS, host: Today on THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW, crack down in Iraq or come home. Get tough or get out. A memo to the president: bin Laden determined to strike inside US. How much warning do you want? Plus, married Massachusetts male seeks mate for summer fun, maybe more. Those hot stories on today's show.

Easter rising! How many sides are there in Iraq, and is anyone on ours?

The right sidekick. Who best helps Kerry beat Bush? Is McCain the name for the president's pain?

Condi's confession. What the Bush team knew on August 6 about what was coming September 11.

Plus my thoughts on the war even movie stars and rich kids fought. All that and more with this celebrated roundtable on your weekly news show.

Announcer: From Congress to the West Wing, he's been a Washington insider, now he's one of the capital's top journalists: Chris Matthews.

MATTHEWS: Hi. I'm Chris Matthews. Welcome to the show. Let's go inside.

Profile: BBC's Katty Kay, Newsweek's Howard Fineman, ABC's Cokie Roberts, and CNN's Tucker Carlson speak about the war in Iraq, John Kerry's running mate, and Condoleezza Rice's testimony

CHRIS MATTHEWS, host: Katty Kay covers Washington for the British Broadcasting Corporation. Howard Fineman is Newsweek's chief political correspondent. Cokie Roberts is an ABC News correspondent and author of the new book, "Founding Mothers," about the women behind the men who built America. And Tucker Carlson, co-hosts "Cross Fire" on CNN.

First up, Easter rising. This week American G.I.s were hit on all fronts. Sunnis in Fallujah and al-Ramadi, a charismatic young Shia leader named Muqtada Sadr, and now we hear of new cooperation between Sunnis and a Shia in a common cause of killing Americans. I was struck by this Good Friday picture on the front pages of our newspapers showing the commitment of our troops but also the cost. It's a group of G.I.s praying over a fallen buddy.

Howard, first question, a lot of armchair generals are saying we just should simply crack down over there. What do you make of that theory?

Mr. HOWARD FINEMAN (Chief Political Correspondent Newsweek): Well, the objective in war is to unite your friends and to divide your enemies. We're doing the opposite in Iraq right now, and the only way out of it is probably to kind of--crackdown that they're calling for. Even Senator John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is saying that that's probably necessary and even more troops may be required to do it.

MATTHEWS: But does that help build the resistance? Katty:

Ms. KATTY KAY (Washington Correspondent BBC): I think there is...

MATTHEWS: Do you go in there and kick ass, more or less, go door-to-door daring people to challenge you. You kill a lot of innocent civilians, which has happened this week. Is that a way to build alliances in that country? The hearts and minds are not.

Ms. KAY: At the moment, there is not a sheer uprising in Iraq. Sadr has something like 15 percent support amongst the Shias, but if the violence increases and the Americans do adopt more heavy-handed tactics, I think there is a risk that Sadr's support grows. For example, al-Sistani, who at the moment has been the grand Ayatollah, who has been much more moderate, has been very careful not to come out and--and hammer the Americans in the way that Sadr has done. But if his supporters start saying, `Listen, we don't like seeing our Shia brothers being killed,' he may have to come out in support of Sadr as well. You could have then a uniting of more Shias against the Americans. That is a risk.

MATTHEWS: Isn't this the classic conundrum of any occupying force, malevolent or benevolent, good or bad buys. We're the good guys, we assume; is there any way to be a good occupying force when you're faced with trouble? Cokie:

Ms. COKIE ROBERTS (ABC News): When you have people who don't want you to occupy, obviously it's going to be a problem; which is why the issue of internationalization keeps coming up, and at the same time that Condi Rice was testifying in Congress so was Colin Powell.

MATTHEWS: Right.

Ms. ROBERTS: And he was saying that--that the UN was--was thinking about another resolution, that NATO was on board, that even the French and the Germans were not saying no to a presence in Iraq. But that was before we got the news of foreign hostages being taken.

MATTHEWS: Right.

Ms. ROBERTS: And I think that trying to get other people in and take all the onus out of this is a very wise thing, but it's going to...

MATTHEWS: What--what, Cokie, what prime minister in Europe would say, `Oh, it looks pretty good over there. The water's fine. We're jumping in.'

Ms. ROBERTS: Right. Time to jump in. Exactly.

MATTHEWS: Why would you take your troops into that part of the world? Tucker, your thoughts. Get tough?

Mr. TUCKER CARLSON (CNN): I'll tell you why. I mean, you would take your troops to that part of the world because if Iraq falls completely apart, more than it has, it has ramifications for you as a European nation. I think there are two lessons, though, one the--this all started when those four contractors were killed in Fallujah last week.

MATTHEWS: Baghdad.

Mr. CARLSON: That was precipitated by the, not much was written about it, a relaxing by the Marines in Fallujah. They pulled back a little bit, and this is what they got. I think it's actually...

MATTHEWS: So when we opened up territory...

Mr. FINEMAN: Whoa, whoa, whoa...

Mr. CARLSON: Second--and second, the attack in Fallujah was coordinated. It was not random, and there is some evidence, growing evidence, that Iran, the revolutionary guards for instance are in the Sadr militias, and in fact, there is kind of a grand control of all of this.

Mr. FINEMAN: The armchair generals would argue that what happens--happened in Fallujah is the reason why more troops are required. Because it wasn't that the Marines had pulled back so much, it was that there weren't many of them.

MATTHEWS: So that goes to the second question.

Mr. CARLSON: That's not true. They got pulled out of the city.

MATTHEWS: So in your eyes the conundrum here is...

Mr. FINEMAN: There weren't enough of them to do it.

MATTHEWS: Tucker, well, what is the answer here? Do people think the answer is more troops? John McCain goes on all the television programs pushing more troops. Is that the solution here?

Ms. KAY: One of the astonishing...

MATTHEWS: More than you can cover.

Ms. KAY: One of the striking things about last week is that the Americans had been tasking all along--the growing police force, growing Iraqi security forces. What happened in Baghdad was that the police left their stations straight away. They are simply not up to the job. If you want to have security at the moment, it's going to have to be tough, trained, even some of the foreign troops left their posts.

Ms. ROBERTS: The foreigners left as well.

Mr. FINEMAN: The problem here...

MATTHEWS: Right. Exactly. They turned tail.

Ms. KAY: It's got to be foreigners. And well-trained foreigners.

Mr. FINEMAN: The problem here is the armchair generals and knowledgeable active people I talked to is we didn't have enough troops in there to begin with to establish a sense of overwhelming order that was necessary.

Ms. KAY: But you do have to...

Ms. ROBERTS: The politics of it.

MATTHEWS: Let me get to that. The politics.

Ms. ROBERTS: The problem is that, you know, getting more troops in in the middle of the election year.

MATTHEWS: Does what? What does it say to the world?

Ms. ROBERTS: It says to the world that the United States is...

MATTHEWS: Is losing.

Ms. ROBERTS: ...losing and not only losing, but is there--it could get into the quagmire.

MATTHEWS: Right. And you know that word.

Ms. ROBERTS: We know that word.

MATTHEWS: A couple of us remember that. Remember what it was like when Westmoreland came to the American people after the Tet offensive in '68 in Vietnam and said, `All I want is a another quarter million troops. I've got a half a million there.'

Ms. ROBERTS: Right.

MATTHEWS: And that says to us you can't win.

Mr. CARLSON: We don't have them. We don't have those troops. That's sort of all this talk. Throw more troops in there. Where are these troops going to come from? They're going to come from National Guard units, and they're not ready right now.

MATTHEWS: Three months training.

Mr. CARLSON: Right. And so where they're really going to come from is from civilian contractors. What's going to happen--this is happening now...

Mr. FINEMAN: Already happening.

Mr. CARLSON: ...is we need to leave behind an Iraqi national police force. When I was here a couple of months ago, it was impossible to overstate how pathetic they were. Single biggest problem? Police officers selling their own guns.

Ms. KAY: But it doesn't seem to have improved very much.

Mr. CARLSON: No, it hasn't.

MATTHEWS: Tucker, I like to do this on the show once in a while for those who have earned a gold star for predictions. Let's listen to you about it--a long time before the war started, in fact.

(Clip from THE CHRIS MATTHEWS SHOW, March 2, 2003)

MATTHEWS: Give us an update on that. What's the downside we're seeing now?

Mr. CARLSON: Well, the president risked his presidency on this idea that we need to invade Iraq. He didn't fully explain it to the public for whatever reason. He said, `Trust me.' And in saying that, he put everything--everything on the line. And I think it's possible--I don't wish it, but I think it's very possible he loses his presidency over this.

MATTHEWS: Isn't there a possibility in a shorter term that we face a united Sia--Shia Sunni nationalist...

Ms. ROBERTS: And that is...

MATTHEWS: ...opposition to our country with the same kind of patriotism from their side, by the way, that we have here.

Ms. KAY: I think the Shia Sunni alliance is short term. This is not going to last very long. There's too much bad blood between them.

MATTHEWS: Will it last to get us out?

Ms. ROBERTS: Wait as long as what?

Ms. KAY: But I think the war in Iraq is going to be won or lost because of the Shia. And the bigger risk is you get the Shia...

MATTHEWS: Sixty-five percent of the population are in the Shia south they like...

Mr. FINEMAN: George...

MATTHEWS: Let me explain this for a second. The Shia are the people led by Sistani, the Ayatollah Sistani, who generally is a moderate.

Ms. KAY: There are different factions between them.

MATTHEWS: But he wants to basically wait us out, take over when we leave.

Ms. KAY: At the moment he's been very careful about not hammering the Americans too much. But look, if more and more Shia are getting killed, these grand, the Muslim clergy, they appear to lead their Shia population, but they also have to follow the consensus. If the consensus is anti-American...

MATTHEWS: Right.

Ms. KAY: The Susani may be forced to go that way.

MATTHEWS: The Susani gets the hot hand here and everybody starts supporting him, this Sistani guy can say...

Ms. KAY: May be forced to...

MATTHEWS: ...`I'm going to join the opposition to the Americans.'

Ms. KAY: That's a real problem.

Ms. ROBERTS: Remember back to Vietnam when Johnson was president, trying to unite America, in the end united a people against him.

MATTHEWS: Yeah.

Ms. ROBERTS: And that seems to be the tactic happening right now, and it can change in Iraq. We're uniting enemies against us.

MATTHEWS: Cokie and everybody, this is the toughest question for this president right now. We probably won't put more troops in. We'll change the rotation. We'll gimmick it up so we'll get more fighting men in there, but the big question he's got to face is does he actually turn over the control of Iraq to some sort of government there at the end of June.

Cokie, will he do it?

Ms. ROBERTS: I think he will do it. And again, the politics and the military situation are in different places, but now, even with people saying June 30's too soon, who does he turn it over to on June 30?

MATTHEWS: And will they be seen by the world? Katty:

Ms. ROBERTS: But it has now become an important date inside Iraq. So it becomes very hard to back away from it.

Ms. KAY: It's--it's...

MATTHEWS: It's a land rush to see who gets the best position.

Mr. FINEMAN: He's going to have to do it. He's going to have to keep to it regardless of the people he turns it over to. And the paradox is he may have to have more troops in there subsequently to keep some sense of order to behind whatever government he's turning it over to.

Ms. KAY: But I think it's going to be a largely symbolic handover at this point. I mean, the Americans are going to--the plans are changing, and many Iraqis don't know what the plans are, but the Americans will have to approve whatever--whoever the prime minister is. The finances and the security are going to be controlled by the Americans. It's going to be a US four-star general in control of both foreign and Iraqi troops. So, we don't have a situation where we hand over, but we don't, it's much more symbolic.

Mr. FINEMAN: It's more symbolic.

MATTHEWS: Dick Cheney, remember when he decided not to go to Iraq back in '91? Just end the war over Kuwait just at the border. Dick Cheney, who was then defense chief, said, `You can't go into that country, because if you set up a government, everybody will think it's a puppet government.' Is that going to be the problem come...

Mr. CARLSON: Yes.

Mr. FINEMAN: That's true. That's true.

Mr. CARLSON: The problem is that it may not be a puppet government. What you want is a puppet government. We invaded it to put in a puppet government. This is not a country that can self-govern.

MATTHEWS: It can look like a puppet government, but they hate us.

Mr. CARLSON: They hate us already. You know what I mean?

Mr. FINEMAN: It would be the worst of both. It would be the worst of both.

Ms. KAY: What you don't want is a government that is so hated by Iraqis that the only way it can enforce its will is with American military power.

MATTHEWS: OK. Anyway, next up, let's come home on a softer topic here. It's the hot question this week on "The Matthews Meter." Let's look at how our 12 regulars looked at it. Who will John Kerry pick for his running mate? Three say John Edwards, two say Dick Gephardt, two say the governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, one for Florida Senator Bill Nelson, and two big ones for--you guessed it--John McCain. By the way, that was Joe Klein and Campbell Brown, who's going to be here next week, still sticking with McCain. You don't like the McCain theory anymore, do you?

Mr. FINEMAN: I don't mind the McCain theory. As a matter of fact, just this week John Kerry kept it going. He was asked again, `Any chance about McCain?' And he gave his usual non-answer answer. So he wants to keep it going.

MATTHEWS: No sure answer.

Mr. FINEMAN: John Kerry is not that kind of politician. He's a very careful politician who's going to take the safest route. But it certainly would be very interesting, and I think it would be a winning bid if he's able to pull it off.

MATTHEWS: If he has to choose between McCain and a safer bet like Edwards, who here says Edwards?

Ms. KAY: I say it.

Ms. ROBERTS: I say neither.

MATTHEWS: I mean a safer bet like Edwards.

Ms. KAY: Between Edwards and McCain? Edwards.

Mr. FINEMAN: Between the two, Edwards.

MATTHEWS: I'm forcing a choice here. You have to go to a safer bet or McCain.

Ms. ROBERTS: Oh, a safer bet. Look, McCain is a Republican. Can we start there? And this is the Democratic nomination.

MATTHEWS: The best for Democratic Party, it should be called.

Ms. ROBERTS: John Kerry in a position of--of being a flip-flopper again. He can't even stick to his party.

MATTHEWS: If in fact McCain was John Kerry's...

Mr. FINEMAN: He doesn't mind being a flip-flopper.

MATTHEWS: If John McCain were--if John Kerry--if John McCain would seem to be by John Kerry his only route to the presidency, would he pick him?

Ms. ROBERTS: If he saw that, but that's a silly...

Mr. CARLSON: But they don't agree on anything.

Mr. FINEMAN: The numbers aren't there yet, anyway.

MATTHEWS: It may not be so silly come July.

Mr. CARLSON: He's pro-life and he's pro-international.

Ms. ROBERTS: Right.

MATTHEWS: Before we go to break, there may be big trouble in the streets of Iraq, but not on the drag strips. It turns out that since the fall of Saddam, drag racing has become a big past time in Iraq, believe it or not. US soldiers are there to provide security, but they even race their own HumVees against souped-up Iraqi hot-rods. What more can I say?

When we come back, it's the Condi Rice quiz show, plus my thoughts on the war that all of America fought, even the matinee idols. Stick around.

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MATTHEWS: The memo said bin Laden's determined to strike inside US. Who messed up? Stick with us.

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Mr. RICHARD BEN-VENISTE: (From Thursday) Isn't it a fact, Dr. Rice, that the August 6 PDB warned against possible attacks in this country, and I ask you whether you recall the title of that PDB?

Ms. CONDOLEEZZA RICE: (From Thursday) I believe the title was `Bin Laden determined to attack inside the United States.'

MATTHEWS: Wow. Welcome back. That was 9/11 Commission member Richard Ben-Veniste questioning Condoleezza Rice about that CIA briefing paper the president got at his Crawford ranch on August 6, 2001, five weeks before 9/11. You know, that title. It just grabs you.

Ms. KAY: And she didn't want to give that title away. She had to be really pushed on that point. Ben-Veniste's pushing very hard. The problem here is that part of the White House defense and Condi's defense was we knew that al-Qaeda was a threat but we were looking at threats abroad and we had beefed up security abroad. Well, here is this paper, briefing paper, given to the president on August 6 saying Osama bin Laden determined to launch an attack in the United States with a long history of all the times al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden trying to launch attacks, not abroad but in the US. It reopens the whole question of whether there were things they missed.

MATTHEWS: Howard, five weeks before it was inside the United States or say it might be coming, but apparently it said that bin Laden liked the idea of the '93 attack on the World Trade Center and he...

Mr. FINEMAN: Yeah. I thought that was...

MATTHEWS: ...and had a history of going back to what he'd done before and...

Mr. FINEMAN: ...and--and--and also, and also, that there was FBI evidence of a pattern that might sus--lead to suspicion...

MATTHEWS: Consistent with.

Mr. FINEMAN: ...consistent with hijackings. But I love that moment where Condi's saying, `Well, I guess it was called the...'

MATTHEWS: That was practiced.

Mr. FINEMAN: `I guess it was called--do you have a problem with that, sir?'

Ms. ROBERTS: But this is the most damaging thing that can happen to George Bush.

MATTHEWS: The title of that briefing paper.

Ms. ROBERTS: The whole thing. I mean, her appearance was fine. She was good. He called her from the pick-up truck from the ranch and said, `You did great.' But the fact is that Americans have been saying consistently and in great numbers, they trust the president...

MATTHEWS: Right.

Ms. ROBERTS: ...and the Republican Party to keep us safe here at home. Nothing could be more important.

MATTHEWS: Except for let me show you a picture...

Mr. FINEMAN: Wait, wait, wait. Except for the fact it was Richard Ben-Veniste asking the questions.

Mr. CARLSON: Exactly. It was like Larry Clayman asking the question. The guy's this party hat, look at this and you say, `I'm serious.'

Ms. ROBERTS: No, I don't mean the memo. I mean the whole issue.

Ms. KAY: He's not a party hat, and she's...

Mr. CARLSON: I don't think in the end--and I'm not defending government in action or any snafus that occurred, but I do think in the end, the proposition that the Bush administration through its ineptitude or lack of vigilance is responsible for 9/11. People won't buy that.

Ms. ROBERTS: No, I agree with that.

Mr. CARLSON: In fact, I think it helps Bush, because it diverts attention from Iraq.

MATTHEWS: I think you may be right. But we showed a tape of your impressions before.

Mr. CARLSON: Oh, no.

MATTHEWS: Let's show the president here. This is August 7, the day after he was given that briefing, "Bin Laden determined to strike inside the United States," and he talked about to the press--he talked to the press about conversations he had about national security issues, but he didn't mention terrorism itself. Here he is.

President GEORGE W. BUSH: (From August 7, 2001) Saddam Hussein is a menace. He's still a menace. He's been a menace forever, and we will do--he needs to open his country up for inspection so we can see whether or not he's developing weapons of mass destruction.

MATTHEWS: For some reason, the president never mentioned the bin Laden threat. Once again, even before 9/11, he's still focused on Iraq at the expense of focusing on the people who attacked us 9/11.

Mr. FINEMAN: It's fascinating. And what--and what Condi Rice said in her testimony was the extent to which they were looking at geopolitical answers and looking at states that harbored terrorists.

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. FINEMAN: And thinking that way well before 9/11, so on the night of 9/11, George Bush made the big decision that they were going to go after states that harbored terrorists.

Ms. KAY: Yes.

Mr. FINEMAN: Really, Iraq was on the table right then and there that first night.

Ms. ROBERTS: She--she got off a good line, which was saying to Bob Kerry, the Democratic on the commission, `You said, Senator Kerry...'

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. FINEMAN: Yes.

Ms. ROBERTS: `...that the best way to go to al-Qaeda was to through Saddam Hussein.'

MATTHEWS: Well, this Iraqi will either be the death of us or our great glory. I'm not sure how.

Mr. FINEMAN: The decision was made even before 9/11.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you, let me get to Tucker's very shrewd point. After all this conversation with Dick Clarke's revelations, with these weeks of testimony, and--let's predict weeks ahead. Will we be moved from that general notion we had all these months since 9/11, it was basically a phenomenal event in history? It was so different than anything that had come before it. It was almost an act of God or the devil or whatever, and the president's not really responsible. Does that still hold, that notion?

Ms. KAY: I think in the short term, Condoleezza Rice's testimony has reopened the question of whether there were warning signs that the White House...

MATTHEWS: Should've been acted on.

Ms. KAY: ...could've been acted on and there was negligence in some way in not acting on them. But I think on the long run, it's going to be, as Tucker was saying, the situation in Iraq...

MATTHEWS: Tucker:

Mr. CARLSON: Well, because the one thing that people sort of think they know about Bush is that he takes national security seriously, some cases too seriously. Maybe he overthinks it to the point that he goes and invades Iraq. But I don't think they're ever going to buy the idea that he just was asleep.

Mr. FINEMAN: Yeah, but the...

Mr. CARLSON: Though, that tape looks...

Mr. FINEMAN: Tucker, the White House...

Ms. ROBERTS: The person responsible for September 11 was Osama bin Laden and his henchmen.

MATTHEWS: Right.

Mr. CARLSON: And the White House should say that.

Ms. ROBERTS: Bush should say that over and over again, and I suspect they will between now and November.

MATTHEWS: Yeah, I know...

Mr. FINEMAN: The other thing is people blame the FBI. They blame the law enforcement people, number one. But the White House is concerned. They don't want everybody looking at those videotapes of what was spewing in August of 2001.

MATTHEWS: Speaking of unpredictable--speaking of the unpredictable, Katty Kay of the BBC, tell me something I don't know.

Ms. KAY: Well, there is a new BBC poll that came out this week, an international poll that shows that the US is seen as a greater threat around the world than either war or terrorism.

MATTHEWS: Oh, great, nice to know.

Mr. FINEMAN: Remember the leak investigation?

MATTHEWS: Yes.

Mr. FINEMAN: Who leaked that name? That's getting big behind the scenes, and I think it's going to be a bigger story than we know, because the question now is not just who leaked it but who lied to investigators about the leak.

MATTHEWS: Cokie:

Ms. ROBERTS: This weekend for the first time in many, many moons is Greek Orthodox Easter, Roman Easter, a Buddhist holiday and Passover. The atheists are meeting in San Diego.

MATTHEWS: OK. Thank you.

Mr. CARLSON: Outstanding. The one thing people have not been able to say about Iraq to this point is that we ought to get out. We ought to pull out. Everyone recognizes that's a disaster. I've heard two smart, un-mentally ill people say that, both in sort of policy positions, in the last 24 hours. I think we're going to hear columnists, we may hear members of Congress hint at that in the next month.

MATTHEWS: To get out.

Mr. CARLSON: Yes.

MATTHEWS: Pull the plug.

Mr. CARLSON: Without honor.

MATTHEWS: Either way.

Thank you very much, a great roundtable. Katty Kay, Howard Fineman, Cokie Roberts and Tucker Carlson. I'll be right back with my thoughts on the world war that all of America fought, even the movie stars. Don't miss it. Stick around.

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TEXT:

Chris,
I watched with interest your segment about Al Franken's new radio show. Thank you!
--Danny
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Commentary: Fighting and winning of World War II

CHRIS MATTHEWS, host: I'm standing on the Washington Mall at the new American monument to the greatest, proudest achievement of the 20th Century or most any other century, the fighting and winning of World War II.

Everyone joined in that war. The sons of rich men like Jack Kennedy who skippered a PT boat in the South Pacific. His brother, Joe, killed on a risky bombing mission in Europe. Ted Williams, the greatest hitter of all time, batted 400 in 1941, joined the Marines as a fighter pilot in '42. Glen Miller, the most popular band leader of the day, joined the Army Air Corps, crashed into the English Channel. Jimmy Stewart, who'd won an Oscar for "The Philadelphia Story," commandeered a bomber squadron over Germany. Clark Gable also served with the Air Corps against the Nazis. His "Gone With the Wind" co-star Leslie Howard was also killed serving the war effort, as was Gable's wife, motion picture star Carole Lombard.

Millions who served will be honored for decades in other pictures, like the ones Grandmom had on her bedroom wall of her three young sons who served in uniform: Uncle Bob, who was based in Australia and married a young girl from Canberra; or my Uncle George, who commandeered one of the tanks that liberated Europe's concentration camps; or dad, who served in Navy intelligence and still claims to know some secrets. Four hundred thousand never made it back, a huge number more not in one piece. There remain for those who made it through, the great event of their lives, the great moment to serve their country and mankind, because there is no doubt about that great struggle, about its necessity when it came, or its majestic rightness. So come to Washington, you boys and girls of World War II and your sons and daughters, grandkids and great-grandkids.

Now we'll have a marker for that struggle that lives in the memory of those who fought it, those who loved them, and the millions more who salute them and those who fought beside them.

Sign-off: The Chris Matthews Show