Top Story: April’s numbers — payrolls +165K, unemployment down to 7.5% — were good. More importantly, however, a few broad themes about the economy are finally starting to emerge.
Theme #1: Positive Revisions
- The revisions to the Feb (from +268K to +332K) and March (+88K to +138K) payrolls numbers are what we called the “buried lede” in this business. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- And quite a few economists and finance types are pointing that out. (Duke St Journal) and (The Stalwart)
- “The revision bandwagon is joyfully full.” (Modeled Behavior)
- And keep April’s +165K in mind: “Since early in 2011, initial reports have been greatly understating total employment.” (The Economist)
Theme #2: A Persistent Recovery
- The recovery has been persistent — perhaps not quick enough — but definitely persistent. (Justin Wolfers) and (Ryan Avent) and (Neil Irwin)
- Job gains have averaged +169K/month over the last year. (David Wessel)
- “Job growth at that pace, if it persists, should be enough to gradually, albeit slowly, bring down the unemployment rate.” (Jared Bernstein)
- Also, the unemployment rate is at its lowest point since Dec. 2008. (Bespoke)
- In fact, one of the big highlights of this report is that people are going out and spending — despite the payroll tax hike — which is the reason for the rise in food-service and retail jobs. (Neil Shah)
- Mind you, the numbers are persistently good … if you have a college degree. Just take a look at how unemployment has changed (or hasn’t) depending on your level of education. (Justin Wolfers)
- One regrettably persistent trend: Slashing public sector jobs is still a drag on the economy. (Betsey Stevenson) and (Real Time Economics)
- Oh, and another persistent trend in this jobs report? Mitt Romney’s chief strategist has a problem with it. (John Harwood)
- Ditto, John Boehner and Eric Cantor. (Speaker John Boehner) and (Eric Cantor)
Theme #3: There Are Always Negatives
- Weekly hours worked is down, meaning the average person with a job is working slightly less than maybe they would like. (Neil Irwin) and (Duke St. Journal)
- That “manufacturing revolution” isn’t. (Business Insider)
- Lastly, a very funny joke if you’re planning to do standup in front of a bunch of economists any time soon: This jobs report had “more upward revisions than Reinhart-Rogoff.” (Pawel Morski)