So here’s the real state of the union.
The country wants change. I just checked the betting odds on the 2008 election. John McCain is the favorite to win the whole thing. He’s got a 23 % chance. Hillary Clinton is in second place with 19 %. Barack Obama is third with 11 percent. Rudy Guiliani is fourth with 10 percent.
A University of Pennsylvania professor of economics has determined that these betting odds are the best forecast of who is actually going to win the election. Don’t look at the polls, he says, look at the money people are putting down on the results. That’s the best way to figure how 2008 is going to turn out.
So if you ask me from now on how the state of the union is going, I’m going to Intrade.com and then to the “politics” category to tell you the answer.
Right now, I’d say the country is in the mood for change. We’re already looking ahead, and placing bets, on who’s going to bring it.